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Navigating the Waters: Chinese Maritime Expansionism

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Navigating the Waters: Chinese Maritime Expansionism

The South and East China Seas have become highly contested regions due to their strategic importance in international trade and global supply-demand dynamics. In this sense, the increasing Chinese maritime assertiveness in the region aims to safeguard economic development, critical shipping lanes, and uphold territorial claims. This assertiveness clashes directly with the countries conforming to the so-called first island chain, stretching from Japan to the Malay Peninsula, and involves  territorial disputes and geopolitical tensions.

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Desperate Afghanistan: A Suicide Pandemic Among Afghan Women

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Desperate Afghanistan: A Suicide Pandemic Among Afghan Women

The departure of Western forces from Afghanistan marked a drastic shift for Afghan women, once granted freedoms during the Taliban's absence. Now, under Taliban rule, a "suicide pandemic" disproportionately affecting women has emerged. Taliban-imposed gender restrictions have triggered a mental health crisis, and the rollback of women's rights and their erasure from public life has led to profound despair and mental health deterioration. Such institutionalized oppression prompts some women to view suicide as the only option to escape their desperate situation, signalling a worrisome impact of the Taliban’s regime on women’s survival.

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Observers of the 2023 TPNW Meeting - Why Should We Care?

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Observers of the 2023 TPNW Meeting - Why Should We Care?

This article explores the importance of observing states attending the Second Meeting of the States Parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) in November 2023. It focuses on Germany, the Netherlands, and Australia to argue how the TPNW discussions can foster the nuclear disarmament discourse in countries concerned with nuclear deterrence. It advocates for the state parties to promote the humanitarian approach and the relationship between the TPNW and NATO to bring observers closer to the Treaty’s disarmament goals.

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The Humanitarian Crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh: A Genocide in the Making

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The Humanitarian Crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh: A Genocide in the Making

It is now over ten months since the people of Nagorno-Karabakh, or Artsakh, have been barely surviving with dwindling reserves of food, medicine, gas, and electricity. The aftermath of resumed Armenian-Azerbaijani hostilities has forced the migration of 5 out of 6 inhabitants to the state of Armenia, with the remaining population being deprived of dignified living conditions. To understand this humanitarian crisis and why it is nigh constitutive of a genocide, this article will delve into a brief history of the region and the territorial dispute that has surrounded it for decades, understanding the motivations behind the actions of both countries and how they have evolved overtime.

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Myanmar’s Crisis: Deciphering Stakeholders and the Probability of Dialogue

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Myanmar’s Crisis: Deciphering Stakeholders and the Probability of Dialogue

Myanmar's Juntas celebrated the 8th anniversary of signing the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) in the country's capital, Nay Pyi Daw, on October 15. However, this anniversary occurred against the backdrop of the February 2021 military coup, which cast doubt on the validity of the NCA, sparked armed conflict in minority ethnic areas, and expanded conflict theatres into Burman-dominated regions. The military's repressive actions against pro-democracy individuals and organisations have fueled armed resistance movements nationwide. Simultaneously, international initiatives to mediate dialogue remain elusive. This article attempts to decipher the complex and dynamic web of stakeholders and assess the existing efforts for dialogue.

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The Wagner Group in Africa: Implications of Migration Patterns and Crises in the Region and Beyond

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The Wagner Group in Africa: Implications of Migration Patterns and Crises in the Region and Beyond

This article explores how the Wagner Group’s (WG) expanding footprint in Africa can exacerbate the migration crisis in Europe. It argues that the group can provoke irregular migration by supporting violence and political oppression in Africa and cooperating with hybrid warfare tools against EU borders. It also reflects on the challenges for the EU to address such threats and comments on what could be done by the Union to contain the WG in Africa.

Pakistan’s Political Crisis - A Country in Transformation

Pakistan’s Political Crisis - A Country in Transformation

Political instability at the core of the Pakistani state threatens the intricate, yet delicate, domestic power balance that has worked to sustain the volatile nation. Imran Khan’s challenge against the Pakistani political establishment that followed the ex-cricketer’s ousting last year followed by his arrest this month is indicative of both the deep political structures of the state but also reflects a new testing of this status quo. Furthermore, the transitional government that overtook Khan has experienced persistent shock and tragedy in its first year of power. With the turbulent context surrounding Khan, the lead up to the upcoming general elections in November could prove to be one of the most consequential periods of the country’s recent history.

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War in Sudan (II): Human Security and Future Outcomes

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War in Sudan (II): Human Security and Future Outcomes

The crisis in Sudan has unfolded due to the outbreak of conflict between the Rapid Support Force (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), which has resulted in mass civilian displacement and a dire need for aid throughout the country [1]. These events echo the Somalian human security crisis of 1993 resulted in the starvation of 300,000 Somalis due to regime collapse and conflict between several rival factions [2]. Despite clear differences between these two cases, the similarities of their outcomes are clear, as both conflicts have produced mass food insecurity, civilian suffering, and potential regional instability [3]. A lack of institutional stability has been a common causal factor in their human security crises [4].

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War in Sudan (I): Two Warring Generals and a Derailed Democratic Transition

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War in Sudan (I): Two Warring Generals and a Derailed Democratic Transition

The first part of the series “War in Sudan” looks at the outbreak of the military conflict that began on April 15, 2023, and its main causes. With this aim, it analyses the two main warring factions, their leaderships, and capabilities as well as the troubled democratic transition still trying to succeed since 2019. Precisely, the role of the military in Sudan’s political, economic, and social affairs is key in this analysis.

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Indonesia as a Middle Power: Navigating the Regional Stage

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Indonesia as a Middle Power: Navigating the Regional Stage

With the onset of Joko Widodo's presidency, expectations arose among scholars and analysts regarding Indonesia's ascent as a middle power in the region. The nation has actively pursued a foreign policy encompassing bilateral relations and multilateral engagement through international forums. Noteworthy milestones in this trajectory include the adoption of the 'ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific' and Indonesia's hosting of international summits as the chair of the G20 in 2022 and ASEAN in 2023. Nevertheless, the country's domestic politics and leadership styles influence specific foreign policy outcomes. Nonetheless, Indonesia has demonstrated progress in its pursuit of regional leadership, building upon the initiatives of previous administrations.

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Guarding Humanity: Mapping the Landscape of X-Risks

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Guarding Humanity: Mapping the Landscape of X-Risks

Existential risk has become a growing field of scientific inquiry, as humanity's future on this planet seems increasingly insecure. This is due to a range of potential threats, including the rapid advancement of AI technology, climate change, and nuclear war.

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SOUTH KOREA’S 4B MOVEMENT: HOW PATRIARCHY UNDERMINES DEMOGRAPHIC SECURITY

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SOUTH KOREA’S 4B MOVEMENT: HOW PATRIARCHY UNDERMINES DEMOGRAPHIC SECURITY

Having the world’s lowest fertility rate, South Korea faces a complex demographic crisis amid an intense gender war, where marriage and childrearing have become politicized. As a response to the government’s pro-natalist policies aimed at reinforcing the country’s demographic security and an increasing economic precarity among young Koreans, radical feminists have taken a political stance against patriarchal and conservative expectations placed upon women in Korean society. Articulated around the 4B movement, they say no to sex, dating, marriage, and children, reinforcing a growing trend for Korea’s demographic future.

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A Bridge To Cross the Gulf: The Saudi-Iran Deal

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A Bridge To Cross the Gulf: The Saudi-Iran Deal

In March 2022, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced a shocking diplomatic agreement. Even more surprising was the revelation of Chinese brokering. Reflective of a quickly transforming Middle Eastern theatre, the agreement is indicative of several regional and international shifts. Whilst not a complete revision of the region’s fundamental power balance or imbalance, the announcement highlighted the increasingly multipolar outlook of Gulf leaders and a general trend to declining US regional influence. Despite not ensuring anything close to lasting peace between the two rivals, any cooling of relations will change the playing field dramatically. 

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The Meltdown: Nuclear Relations in the Arctic

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The Meltdown: Nuclear Relations in the Arctic

This article assesses the impact of multipolarity on nuclear relations in the Arctic. Due to climate change, geopolitical tension, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, nuclear relations in the Arctic are unstable and present serious security risks that cannot be contended with through the use of classic deterrence theory. Melting polar ice means growing competition for Arctic territory and resources amongst North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members, the Russian Federation, and China. This is occurring alongside the threat of nuclear warfare, which is considered by all actors to be a matter of deterrence despite it being beyond the bipolar rational choice modelling of deterrence theory.

Nicaragua: Democracy on the Brink

Nicaragua: Democracy on the Brink

After a long-lasting revolution started in 1961, decades of armed conflict and the complex establishment of democracy since the late 1980s, Nicaragua once again faces an uncertain future. The repression carried out by the ruling Ortega-Murillo family has grown exponentially since the 2018 protests, spreading to almost all sectors of society and reaching unprecedented proportions. Its last move was expelling and stripping the citizenship to more than 200 political prisoners.

Digital Authoritarianism in the Middle East

Digital Authoritarianism in the Middle East

Over the past ten years, governments of the Middle East have employed digital information and communication technologies as a tool to reinforce control over their citizens. Drawing inspiration from models provided by China, Russia and Israel, Middle Eastern governments have implemented policies and strategies aimed at censorship, digital deception and mass surveillance, worsening human rights records in the region.

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The Future of Brazil-China Relations

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The Future of Brazil-China Relations

This article explores the strategic partnership in trade and investment between China and Brazil. It explores the current challenges faced by Brazil’s agricultural and manufacturing sectors, both of which are severely impacted by relations with China. This article goes further to assess Brazil’s emerging position in the ongoing economic and technological race between China and the United States, shedding light on future developments in Brazil’s foreign policy and strategy.

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Where South Korea Stands Today: From Soft Power Success Story to Nuclear Ambition

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Where South Korea Stands Today: From Soft Power Success Story to Nuclear Ambition

Despite North Korea's constant threat, South Korea's prudent adherence to international law and alliance with the United States have restrained its nuclear ambitions. Given its impressive economic growth and cultural influence, recent discourse suggests that the country demonstrates its ambition by adopting more pervasive nuclear strategies.

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Gas, War and Europe (II): A Not-so-clear Future

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Gas, War and Europe (II): A Not-so-clear Future

The second part of the series “Gas, War and Europe” looks at the latest developments on the energy crisis triggered by the War in Ukraine, its current impact in Europe and the possible future scenarios. For this, the article delves into the institutional response given by the European Union (EU), the evolution of imports and energy suppliers as well as the challenges ahead.