BIG WORLD, BIG DATA

The number of potential applications for the use of big data is immense. Initially intended as a private sector tool, big data is now finding its place within the realm of politics. Cambridge Analytica’s involvement in the Trump and Brexit campaigns has demonstrated the onset of a new era where big data may be used not only for population analysis, but also to influence the political views and preferences of the population as well.

By Yuliia Kondrushenko

The evolution of technology and the use of big data has forcefully shifted the balance of power relations within society. It is no longer the person who watches the algorithm, but rather the algorithm watching the person [2]. The main features of big data – volume, velocity, and variety – create a very appealing tool as it allows for the discernment of patterns and relationships that are not readily evident from the input data itself.

Big data is increasing “situational awareness” by recording trends that are taking place. This is often used by major supermarket chains such as Wal-Mart, which handles more than a million customer transactions every hour [4]. For example, customer buying behaviour records can demonstrate if the person is conservative, or if they are prone to shifting preferences based on prices, branding, and other factors. Nevertheless, one must be aware that big data can only show event correlation and cannot concretely explain causation.

Due to the corporate-centric nature of big data collection, this sector is where it will be deployed. Big data is an essential tool for detecting bank fraud; should a transaction deviate from the customer’s normal buying patterns, the bank is able to block the activity immediately [5]. But contrary to commercial application, deployment of big data analysis “for the public good” has not been widespread. One place big data could have been useful was the 2007 mortgage crisis in the United States, which began the world financial crisis of 2008. Had big data analysis been performed in relation to debt securities, the bubble may have been halted at its inception.

This is where the limitations of big data analysis become obvious though. The first issue is the amount of data available for algorithmic consumption. The predictive power of big data can only be strengthened by a “significant number of known instances of a particular behaviour” [6]. This means that while bank fraud is a common and well-researched problem with a distinguished pattern, unprecedented crises like the mortgage bubble are not easily predictable.

Another limitation comes from the creation of the algorithm itself. Consumption of an “example data” set creates the operation with the task of finding correlations in the data [7]. Data, which is separate from the example set, is then used to test the effectiveness of the resulting algorithm. This can sometimes create an algorithm that is efficient at forecasting based on the sample used to create it, but is still inadequate for classification of new test data.

While there is a significant risk of result politicization – where the data expert will find scenarios they were initially hoping to find – the fast expansion of available data sets and their dynamic nature makes big data analysis a very powerful tool for business and research.

Sources:

[1]Cárdenas, A., Manadhata, P. and Rajan, S. (2013). Big Data Analytics for Security Intelligence.

[ebook] Cloud Security Alliance, pp.1-22. Available at: https://cloudsecurityalliance.org/download/big-data-analytics-for-security-intelligence/

[2]Jani, K. (2016). The Promise and Prejudice of Big Data in Intelligence Community.

[ebook] Ithaca: The Computing Research Repository Journal, pp.1-19.

https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.08629

[3]Seifert, J. (2007). Data Mining and Homeland Security: An Overview.

Washington D.C.: Congressional Research Service, pp.1-29.

[4]Troester, M. (2012). Big Data Meets Big Data Analytics. [ebook] SAS Institute Inc., pp.1-11.

https://www.sas.com/content/dam/SAS/en_us/doc/whitepaper1/big-data-meets-big-data-analytics-105777.pdf

[5]Cárdenas, A., Manadhata, P. and Rajan, S. (2013). Big Data Analytics for Security Intelligence.

[ebook] Cloud Security Alliance, pp.1-22.

https://cloudsecurityalliance.org/download/big-data-analytics-for-security-intelligence/

[6]Seifert, J. (2007). Data Mining and Homeland Security: An Overview.

Washington D.C.: Congressional Research Service, pp.1-29.

[7]Jani, K. (2016). The Promise and Prejudice of Big Data in Intelligence Community.

[ebook] Ithaca: The Computing Research Repository Journal, pp.1-19. Available at: https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.08629

3D PRINTING AND NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION

The combination of innovation and digitalisation poses a threat to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as the current institutional framework is targeted at objects, not information. The spread of technology does not fall under the jurisdiction of the NPT and is, due to its digital nature, hard to regulate.

By Caitlin Irvine

The political implications of the recent technological tsunami have yet to be fully explored. Additive Manufacturing (AM), the broader term for 3D printing is one such area as it is displaying the potential to alter the global nuclear balance. Although AM technology has been in use since the 1980s, investment in 3D printing has increased in the 21st century as the initial intellectual property rights expired [1].

After a non-profit organisation called Defence Distributed produced the Computer Aided Design files for a 3D printed handgun, the plans were downloaded over 100,000 times around the world before the cease and desist order came into effect [2]. Although currently it is not possible to use this technology to manufacture nuclear weapons due to the export controls on the maraging steel required for use in centrifuges, 3D printing represents a potential proliferation pathway [3]. The combination of innovation and digitalisation poses a threat to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as the current institutional framework is targeted at objects, not information. The spread of technology does not fall under the jurisdiction of the NPT and is, due to its digital nature, hard to regulate.

The need for a regulatory framework, however, is urgent. In 2015, General Electric used a AM process called Direct Metal Laser Melting to produce a jet engine capable of 33,000 rotations per minute, similar to the requirements of a uranium-enriching centrifuge [4]. As 3D printing technology, expands in the aerospace industry it will develop a reputation for quality manufacturing; an example of this emerging trend is Raytheon, the U.S. defence contractor, who is attempting to use 3D printing technology to create components of a guided missile system that can be used for a nuclear warhead [5].

Policy must keep comfortable pace with technological advances. Even though AM is still an evolving technology, policy is seriously lagging behind. With no export controls or centralised manufacturing base for the AM industry, the technology is decentralised and open source – to such a degree that my flatmate built two 3D printers in his bedroom for his undergraduate dissertation. Presently, it is possible to almost completely build handguns, grenade launchers, drones, and even guided missiles [6]. Developments in AM technology are therefore likely to impact the system of global governance and non-proliferation because of the variety of products that can be produced. Especially since there is no way of knowing in what hands this knowledge will end up.

Sources:

[1] Kruth, JP, Leu, MC, and Nakagawa, T (1998) ‘Progress in Additive Manufacturing and Rapid Prototyping’,

CIRP Annals, Vol 47: 2, pp 52. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0007-8506(07)63240-5

[2] Morelle, R (2013) ‘US government orders removal of Defcad 3D-gun designs’ [online] BBC News

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-22478310

[3] Christopher, G 2015, '3D Printing: A Challenge to Nuclear Export Controls'

Strategic Trade Review, vol 1, no. 1, 2, pp. 22.http://www.str.ulg.ac/3D_Printing_A_Challenge

[4] GEreports (2015) ‘The 3D Printed Jet Engine’, YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6A4-AKICQU

[5] Raytheon (2017) ‘To Print a Missile: Raytheon research points to 3-D printing for tomorrow's technology’

[online] https://www.raytheon.com/news/feature/print-missile

[6] Fey, M (2017) ‘The Increasing Salience of 3D Printing for Nuclear Non-Proliferation’ [online],

Peace Research Institute Frankfurt Blog, https://blog.prif.org/