With the onset of Joko Widodo's presidency, expectations arose among scholars and analysts regarding Indonesia's ascent as a middle power in the region. The nation has actively pursued a foreign policy encompassing bilateral relations and multilateral engagement through international forums. Noteworthy milestones in this trajectory include the adoption of the 'ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific' and Indonesia's hosting of international summits as the chair of the G20 in 2022 and ASEAN in 2023. Nevertheless, the country's domestic politics and leadership styles influence specific foreign policy outcomes. Nonetheless, Indonesia has demonstrated progress in its pursuit of regional leadership, building upon the initiatives of previous administrations.
In March 2022, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced a shocking diplomatic agreement. Even more surprising was the revelation of Chinese brokering. Reflective of a quickly transforming Middle Eastern theatre, the agreement is indicative of several regional and international shifts. Whilst not a complete revision of the region’s fundamental power balance or imbalance, the announcement highlighted the increasingly multipolar outlook of Gulf leaders and a general trend to declining US regional influence. Despite not ensuring anything close to lasting peace between the two rivals, any cooling of relations will change the playing field dramatically.
This article explores the strategic partnership in trade and investment between China and Brazil. It explores the current challenges faced by Brazil’s agricultural and manufacturing sectors, both of which are severely impacted by relations with China. This article goes further to assess Brazil’s emerging position in the ongoing economic and technological race between China and the United States, shedding light on future developments in Brazil’s foreign policy and strategy.
Despite North Korea's constant threat, South Korea's prudent adherence to international law and alliance with the United States have restrained its nuclear ambitions. Given its impressive economic growth and cultural influence, recent discourse suggests that the country demonstrates its ambition by adopting more pervasive nuclear strategies.
On the 24th of February, the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is marked. The war has awakened the Ukrainian nation more assertively than it was after the start of Russian aggression in 2014. The Ukrainian Army is actively upgrading, taking advantage of NATO’s ammunition provision and training support. The country continues undertaking overdue reforms, particularly addressing corruption. Finally, Ukraine revives its national identity, uniting people from all over the country and resisting the enemy. This article analyses the main changes that have taken place in Ukraine since its Russia’s full-scale invasion.
On the 26th of March 2022, the President of the United States of America (USA), Joe Biden, visited Warsaw to rally North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries in support of Ukraine [1]. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the end of February, the Western world had started sanctioning the aggressor rather than getting involved militarily [2]. Biden addressed the US allies in a very long speech that contained words described as surprising by some and alarming by others. This article aims at providing an alternative view of the two main narratives that address Biden’s statement that Putin cannot remain in power.
The exploitation of the information space of targeted countries represents an advantageous tactic for the Kremlin that levels the battlefield below the threshold of an open confrontation. The means of Russian information warfare are carefully crafted narratives used as tools to destabilize the information space of targeted countries. The narratives created by Russia are either entirely false or diluted truths void of context. This article will argue that the narratives created and disseminated during Russian disinformation campaigns do not emerge independently of existing meta-narratives. The narratives used in disinformation campaigns will be viewed as tools used on an ad hoc basis connected to one of the Kremlin’s central meta-narratives.
The article attempts to analyse the situation in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan and its possible implications for the neighbouring countries and global powers. It builds arguments based on the ongoing developments in Afghanistan, challenges faced by the Taliban regime, apprehensions of neighbouring countries and risks for competing global powers. It also highlights that the present scenario has the potential of returning Afghanistan back to the status of a hub of transnational terrorist outfits and becoming a field of competition between rival global powers.
India’s contemporary relations with Southeast Asia can be viewed through a prism of historical, religious, and cultural influences which it has had in the region for more than a millennium. These relations include the ancient Indianised kingdoms and maritime empires of Sailendra, Funan, Majapahit and Khmer respectively and a legacy that continues to be celebrated through the spread of the Hindu, Buddhist and Islamic faiths which have shaped the contemporary societies of these states.
Space policy issues are often framed in the context of great power competition. States like Russia, the People’s Republic of China and the United States are the main drivers of technological innovation in this area, but their rivalries also constitute barriers in negotiations regarding international governance. Nonetheless, space efforts of middle powers are not just important for the preservation of these states’ economic position in the international system but
Sudan is at a democratic crossroads. In September 2019, following months of bloody protests, the thirty-year Islamic dictatorship of Omar el-Bashir was ended. [1] and a new interim civilian-military government, the Transitional Military Council (now the Sovereignty Council of Sudan), took his place. [2] The aim of this Council is to transform Sudan into a fully democratic state by 2022. [3] However, certain military elements, along with a still significant minority of Bashir’s Islamist National Congress Party still in Parliament are strongly opposed to this new objective.
When a rising power threatens to displace an incumbent power, historically the result has been war. The rise of China has triggered heated debate within academia. This question- whether the United States (US) and China will fall into the so-called “Thucydides’ Trap”-is of primary relevance today for policymakers worldwide as both countries intensify their rivalry. Should both countries expand their economic, political, security and cultural cooperation, war is unlikely to be an outcome.
From an emerging to an established powerhouse in the region, China’s rise to power in Asia has been afforded by a series of strategic policies within a larger grand strategy, which has undermined central tenets of the Westphalian concept of sovereignty and territory. Through the revival of the Silk Road, China has acquired key infrastructure in Asia and Africa by leveraging weaknesses in international fiscal policies and lending programmes.
For this interview series, Fabiana Natale and Gilles de Valk speak to experts from different backgrounds on the political implications of the COVID-19 pandemic in their respective fields. From their living rooms in France and The Netherlands, they will explore the (geo)political, security, and societal consequences of this pandemic. This interview series marks the launch of a new type of content for the Security Distillery, one which we hope can provide informative and entertaining analyses of an uncertain and evolving development in global politics.
The existing world order mainly characterized by the triumph of Western liberalism is under threat with the emergence of new global power. The Asian great power, China is rising and ready to challenge the status quo. The United States (US) under Trump’s leadership is retreating from global leadership, while China is attempting to fill the power vacuum. China’s increasing strategic investment in international affairs and its commitment supports the argument that China is up for the challenge and serious about global leadership in playing the ‘responsible power’ role.
Chinese economic expansion demands energy and natural resources that far exceed domestic supply capabilities, posing a serious threat to the nation’s security. From this, diversified Sino-African energy and resource trade relations have become more than just strategic, but rather, vital for Beijing. It is of no surprise that the literature on the subject of Chinese investment in African nations is polarised and influenced by value judgements regarding China’s role and agenda in the international economy.
n the shadows of the COVID-19 pandemic, the State of Israel is making a serious move. In a matter of weeks, it will be decided whether the Jewish state will annex parts of the landlocked territory of the West Bank. While speculations about the effects of such a move on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are in full swing, little attention has been placed on the future of Israel’s relations with other states in the Middle East. This article stresses how an annexation could affect Israel’s relationship with one of its most important strategic partners in the region: the Arab Republic of Egypt.
Disarmament is not a straightforward process. It does not only serve to decrease the world’s number of weapons, but also to monitor the use of existing ones. It constitutes a challenge, as national interests, lobbyists, ethics and moral values clash with one another. Although France and other states express their willingness to contribute to a worldwide disarmament, the data show another story.
The history of humankind is a history of people movements, with new perceptions of space as a triggering factor for major historical breaks. [1] Migration, defined as ‘the process of people travelling to a new place to live’ [2], has, indeed, always been a common feature of human societies. [3] But, while migrations have significantly enriched European societies in the era of mass movement [4], a shift seems to have occurred in our understanding of national borders.
“Due to its increasingly active agenda, membership in the United Nations Security Council is seen as more of a prize than ever. So what are the determinants of a UN election? Foreign aid, UN contributions and strong bilateral relations with voting members all play a role. But even more important is the skill and competency of those diplomats working the halls of the UN Headquarters to secure official support for their campaign.“
“Territorial and jurisdictional rights in the South China Sea are a source of tension and potential conflict between China and other countries in the region. The main point of contention and instability is China’s assertion that it has a historical right to the vast majority of the South China Sea in spite of numerous other countries’ recognised territorial claims. China’s aggressive attitude has created substantial tension not only in the region but also for the rest of the international community.”
“Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced that Iran will begin to reduce its compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) if the remaining members observing the deal fail to ease the weight of U.S. sanctions. European efforts to circumvent U.S. sanctions have thus far rendered insufficient results due to the overwhelming economic pressure of the U.S. measures. Europe’s apparent rejection of the withdrawal suggests that the European members are not convinced that Iran will follow-through with its threatened action. Iran’s tensions with the U.S., however, will ostensibly continue to escalate.
On 7th July 2017, 122 nations passed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) through a United Nations mandate. All Nuclear Weapons States (NWS) and the states under their protection boycotted the debate except for The Netherlands: they attended all the negotiations and then voted against the treaty.
It is important that Chinese investment recognise Africa’s quest for an equitable international partnership that allows the continent to determine its own development while working towards common global goals: sustainable development, mutual prosperity and respect.
June’s Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao, Shandong saw visits from delegates of all SCO members, most notably leaders Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin of China and Russia. Despite it being promoted as a primarily multilateral organisation and platform, it is clear that this year’s summit reflects China’s role as its dominant force.
This year’s Western Balkans Summit, taking place in London, failed to produce almost any meaningful results regarding the real integration of the region into the European Union. Even though the EU has decided to move forward with enlargement processes, general perception is that these efforts are half hearted and indecisive. At the same time, new players are gaining influence in the Western Balkans. Is the EU struggling to hold on to the Western Balkans?
The South China Sea (SCS) is a major regional hotspot that embodies critical strategic importance in the Asia Pacific region […] as the de facto regional hegemon, China’s bold claims over almost the entire sea have triggered maritime standoffs and bilateral disputes with its neighbours, such as the legal fight with the Philippines and several skirmishes with Vietnam. These claims are part of China’s long-term strategic interests in the SCS.
Russia has one-fifth of the world’s global oil reserves within its borders, but much of its energy potential is untapped. Ensuring that energy exports remain a viable source of revenue relies on expanding extraction projects into the Russian Far East, thus requiring foreign investment.
The election of Javier Gerarldo Milei as President of Argentina already marked a pivotal shift in the country's foreign policies. Milei's government seems willing to keep prioritising ideological alliances, with what he defines as "the free world", over economic interests. The President advocates for closer ties with Western liberal nations, particularly the USA and Israel, while distancing from MERCOSUR and BRICS and refusing to have diplomatic connections with historic commercial partners of Argentina, such as Brazil and China. As Argentina becomes more pro-American, economic consequences and internal changes emerge, reshaping the nation's future.