The election of Javier Gerarldo Milei as President of Argentina already marked a pivotal shift in the country's foreign policies. Milei's government seems willing to keep prioritising ideological alliances, with what he defines as "the free world", over economic interests. The President advocates for closer ties with Western liberal nations, particularly the USA and Israel, while distancing from MERCOSUR and BRICS and refusing to have diplomatic connections with historic commercial partners of Argentina, such as Brazil and China. As Argentina becomes more pro-American, economic consequences and internal changes emerge, reshaping the nation's future.

BY Andrea Di Marcoberardino

On December 10th 2023, Javier Gerardo Milei officially became the President of Argentina in the election that enshrined forty years of democracy. While foreign policy was not a central topic in the electoral campaign, the President's political positions in favour of Israel, Ukraine, the US and against cooperation with China and Brazil have been evident since the beginning of his campaign. Diana Mondino, the current Foreign policy minister, has declared that Argentina will not join the BRICS. That is a complete change of position compared to the previous government. Furthermore, the diplomatic relations with Brazil and China, Argentina's two major economic partners and members of the BRICS, have been jeopardised by the declaration of Milei and his Ministers. The current government is also very critical of the Mercosur. At the same time, he shows a willingness to strengthen Argentina’s relationship with the United States, Israel and Ukraine, taking a more explicit position than the previous executive in the two major armed conflicts of the moment.

Previous governments

Historically, Argentina’s foreign policy has been characterised mainly by a pragmatic form of realism, in which decisions about international matters were made based on the country's best interests. More than any other government previously, the Cristina and Nestor Kirchner’s governments have organised their diplomatic work based on the country’s internal matters and needs. Influences on public policy, including foreign policy, encompassed factors such as ineffective governance, societal protests, joblessness, economic hardship, discussions on development, wealth distribution, global integration strategies, the roles of communication channels, the financial industry, entrepreneurs, and agricultural producers.

However, the newly elected President of Argentina seems willing to organise the country's foreign policy based on his ideology rather than on the influences of the critical economic and social groups that have power in the country. Milei aims to get Argentina closer to the “civilised world,” as he often said in public interviews. This includes Western liberal countries, particularly the United States, Israel, Ukraine and some European countries with governments that also hold his political views, including Italy, Hungary, and Poland. There are the “uncivilised communist countries” that he appoints to be Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and China, which is the second commercial partner of Argentina. His opposition to China and the current Brazilian government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva breaks with the historical tradition of a foreign policy in which the public sphere and internal interests determine the country's position. In this case, the internal interest of keeping good relations with Argentina's two major economic partners is put aside to align the country with the “free world.” The central tenet of Milei’s ideology revolves around the global effort to oppose authoritarian regimes, primarily those stemming from leftist ideologies.

BRICS

The previous government of Alberto Fernandez managed to get Argentina to be among the six countries invited to join the BRICS. The membership would have guaranteed the country a voice at the international table and would have strengthened the relationship with its two major international partners: China and Brazil. However, as mentioned above, good relations with Brazil and China are not a priority for the current government, even less so, building partnerships with Russia due to Milei’s goal of building strong relations with the United States and Ukraine.

For this reason, this past December (2023), the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Diana Mondino, did not ratify the membership of Argentina, stating once again the current position of Argentina on the US-China trade war of refraining from engaging in “business with communists.”As the London School of Economics (LSE) showed this withdrawal will have a considerable cost for Argentina, not only because of the difficulty of keeping good relations with China, Brazil and India but also because of the significant change in foreign policy like this will exasperate the recurring pattern of instability and trade difficulty for the country. In addition, it would have been challenging for Milei to justify the involvement in the BRICS, considering that the main focus of his political campaign was to adopt the dollar as the official currency of the economy. The BRICS nations are developing a new currency to replace the US dollar as the leading global trading currency.

MERCOSUR

The MERCOSUR is the common regional market that includes Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, which has been central in the past decades for the civil and economic cooperation among these countries. On a regional level, Milei advocates for change, while during the electoral campaign, the current President of Argentina manifested the possibility of exiting the trade bloc; this is not a possibility that his government is evaluating right now. However, a change of approach is likely to happen due to the political changes in the region. Furthermore, Milei's presence could complicate the ongoing, postponed, finalisation of the trade pact between the European Union and the Mercosur bloc. Milei has characterised this agreement as a “low-quality customs union that leads to the diversion of trade and harms its members.''

These elections could provoke a break inside the MERCOSUR. An improvement in relations with Paraguay and Uruguay is predictable due to the good relations and shared ideology with the presidents of the two South American countries. However, neither Lula nor Luis Arce, president of Bolivia, assisted in the presidential oath of Milei, and both have expressed preoccupation about the future of Argentina with its new government.

Israel and Ukraine

Argentina is the house of the largest Jewish community in Latin America. Milei is close to the country's Jewish community, so much so that he declared studying the Torah in the past years - although declaring himself a catholic. For these reasons, it is unsurprising that he has a strong will to build more robust diplomatic and commercial relations with Israel. Furthermore, an evident change in this sense was realised just two days after Milei took power. On the 12th of December, the Argentine delegation at the General Assembly of the United Nations decided to abstain from the resolution about a ceasefire in Gaza.

The position of the President on Ukraine is as clear as the one about Israel: full support of the Ukrainians in the conflict against Russia. The support and proximity of the Argentinian president to the Ukrainian battle was shown by a long-lasting hug between Volodymyr Zelens'kyj and Milei during the formal greetings after the presidential oath. Milei’s position on these two conflicts are also to be understood as a way to make Argentina’s stance on international matters similar to the ones of the United States, as a means to make the United States one of their significant commercial partners.

Conclusion

Argentina will face internal changes that will likely lead to a difficult time for the middle class and impoverished people. However, the impact of changes on foreign policy is not something that can be predicted on a full-scale level. Argentina will shift from being a medium regional power that holds strong relations with developing economies like Brazil, China and India, to becoming strongly aligned with the United States and Israel, while potentially adopting U.S. currency. Such a shift will incur huge costs, especially for Argentina’s industry and exports. It is historic for the country because, for the first time since democracy was restored in 1983Argentina's foreign policy will be led by the executive's ideological beliefs and point of view and not the country's best interest.

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