The election of Javier Gerarldo Milei as President of Argentina already marked a pivotal shift in the country's foreign policies. Milei's government seems willing to keep prioritising ideological alliances, with what he defines as "the free world", over economic interests. The President advocates for closer ties with Western liberal nations, particularly the USA and Israel, while distancing from MERCOSUR and BRICS and refusing to have diplomatic connections with historic commercial partners of Argentina, such as Brazil and China. As Argentina becomes more pro-American, economic consequences and internal changes emerge, reshaping the nation's future.
Indonesia as a Middle Power: Navigating the Regional Stage
With the onset of Joko Widodo's presidency, expectations arose among scholars and analysts regarding Indonesia's ascent as a middle power in the region. The nation has actively pursued a foreign policy encompassing bilateral relations and multilateral engagement through international forums. Noteworthy milestones in this trajectory include the adoption of the 'ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific' and Indonesia's hosting of international summits as the chair of the G20 in 2022 and ASEAN in 2023. Nevertheless, the country's domestic politics and leadership styles influence specific foreign policy outcomes. Nonetheless, Indonesia has demonstrated progress in its pursuit of regional leadership, building upon the initiatives of previous administrations.
A Bridge To Cross the Gulf: The Saudi-Iran Deal
In March 2022, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced a shocking diplomatic agreement. Even more surprising was the revelation of Chinese brokering. Reflective of a quickly transforming Middle Eastern theatre, the agreement is indicative of several regional and international shifts. Whilst not a complete revision of the region’s fundamental power balance or imbalance, the announcement highlighted the increasingly multipolar outlook of Gulf leaders and a general trend to declining US regional influence. Despite not ensuring anything close to lasting peace between the two rivals, any cooling of relations will change the playing field dramatically.
The Future of Brazil-China Relations
This article explores the strategic partnership in trade and investment between China and Brazil. It explores the current challenges faced by Brazil’s agricultural and manufacturing sectors, both of which are severely impacted by relations with China. This article goes further to assess Brazil’s emerging position in the ongoing economic and technological race between China and the United States, shedding light on future developments in Brazil’s foreign policy and strategy.
Where South Korea Stands Today: From Soft Power Success Story to Nuclear Ambition
Despite North Korea's constant threat, South Korea's prudent adherence to international law and alliance with the United States have restrained its nuclear ambitions. Given its impressive economic growth and cultural influence, recent discourse suggests that the country demonstrates its ambition by adopting more pervasive nuclear strategies.
One year of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine: How the country has changed
On the 24th of February, the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is marked. The war has awakened the Ukrainian nation more assertively than it was after the start of Russian aggression in 2014. The Ukrainian Army is actively upgrading, taking advantage of NATO’s ammunition provision and training support. The country continues undertaking overdue reforms, particularly addressing corruption. Finally, Ukraine revives its national identity, uniting people from all over the country and resisting the enemy. This article analyses the main changes that have taken place in Ukraine since its Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Putin "cannot remain in power" – Were Biden’s words a blunder or intentional?
On the 26th of March 2022, the President of the United States of America (USA), Joe Biden, visited Warsaw to rally North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries in support of Ukraine [1]. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the end of February, the Western world had started sanctioning the aggressor rather than getting involved militarily [2]. Biden addressed the US allies in a very long speech that contained words described as surprising by some and alarming by others. This article aims at providing an alternative view of the two main narratives that address Biden’s statement that Putin cannot remain in power.
The Kremlin’s Meta-narratives: The centralized sources of Russian information warfare
The exploitation of the information space of targeted countries represents an advantageous tactic for the Kremlin that levels the battlefield below the threshold of an open confrontation. The means of Russian information warfare are carefully crafted narratives used as tools to destabilize the information space of targeted countries. The narratives created by Russia are either entirely false or diluted truths void of context. This article will argue that the narratives created and disseminated during Russian disinformation campaigns do not emerge independently of existing meta-narratives. The narratives used in disinformation campaigns will be viewed as tools used on an ad hoc basis connected to one of the Kremlin’s central meta-narratives.
The Situation in Afghanistan and the Prospects of Peace and Stability in the Region
The article attempts to analyse the situation in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan and its possible implications for the neighbouring countries and global powers. It builds arguments based on the ongoing developments in Afghanistan, challenges faced by the Taliban regime, apprehensions of neighbouring countries and risks for competing global powers. It also highlights that the present scenario has the potential of returning Afghanistan back to the status of a hub of transnational terrorist outfits and becoming a field of competition between rival global powers.
India’s Act East Policy: Strategic Rationales and Maritime Strategy
India’s contemporary relations with Southeast Asia can be viewed through a prism of historical, religious, and cultural influences which it has had in the region for more than a millennium. These relations include the ancient Indianised kingdoms and maritime empires of Sailendra, Funan, Majapahit and Khmer respectively and a legacy that continues to be celebrated through the spread of the Hindu, Buddhist and Islamic faiths which have shaped the contemporary societies of these states.
Middle-Power Space Strategies: A Comparison of Canada and South Korea
Space policy issues are often framed in the context of great power competition. States like Russia, the People’s Republic of China and the United States are the main drivers of technological innovation in this area, but their rivalries also constitute barriers in negotiations regarding international governance. Nonetheless, space efforts of middle powers are not just important for the preservation of these states’ economic position in the international system but
Bargaining with Foreign Policy: The Potential Unintended Consequences in Sudan
Sudan is at a democratic crossroads. In September 2019, following months of bloody protests, the thirty-year Islamic dictatorship of Omar el-Bashir was ended. [1] and a new interim civilian-military government, the Transitional Military Council (now the Sovereignty Council of Sudan), took his place. [2] The aim of this Council is to transform Sudan into a fully democratic state by 2022. [3] However, certain military elements, along with a still significant minority of Bashir’s Islamist National Congress Party still in Parliament are strongly opposed to this new objective.
Thucydides Trap - Why China and the US are not destined for war
When a rising power threatens to displace an incumbent power, historically the result has been war. The rise of China has triggered heated debate within academia. This question- whether the United States (US) and China will fall into the so-called “Thucydides’ Trap”-is of primary relevance today for policymakers worldwide as both countries intensify their rivalry. Should both countries expand their economic, political, security and cultural cooperation, war is unlikely to be an outcome.
The Hunt for Strategic Infrastructure: Geo-economics of China’s Territorial Ambitions
From an emerging to an established powerhouse in the region, China’s rise to power in Asia has been afforded by a series of strategic policies within a larger grand strategy, which has undermined central tenets of the Westphalian concept of sovereignty and territory. Through the revival of the Silk Road, China has acquired key infrastructure in Asia and Africa by leveraging weaknesses in international fiscal policies and lending programmes.
Conversing COVID – Part VII, with Francesco Trupia
For this interview series, Fabiana Natale and Gilles de Valk speak to experts from different backgrounds on the political implications of the COVID-19 pandemic in their respective fields. From their living rooms in France and The Netherlands, they will explore the (geo)political, security, and societal consequences of this pandemic. This interview series marks the launch of a new type of content for the Security Distillery, one which we hope can provide informative and entertaining analyses of an uncertain and evolving development in global politics.
The Realisation of China as an Emerging Global Power and Its Implications for Security
The existing world order mainly characterized by the triumph of Western liberalism is under threat with the emergence of new global power. The Asian great power, China is rising and ready to challenge the status quo. The United States (US) under Trump’s leadership is retreating from global leadership, while China is attempting to fill the power vacuum. China’s increasing strategic investment in international affairs and its commitment supports the argument that China is up for the challenge and serious about global leadership in playing the ‘responsible power’ role.
On the Contentious Subject of Chinese Investment in Africa
Chinese economic expansion demands energy and natural resources that far exceed domestic supply capabilities, posing a serious threat to the nation’s security. From this, diversified Sino-African energy and resource trade relations have become more than just strategic, but rather, vital for Beijing. It is of no surprise that the literature on the subject of Chinese investment in African nations is polarised and influenced by value judgements regarding China’s role and agenda in the international economy.
The Enemy of My Enemy: Why Egyptian-Israeli Security Cooperation Is on Thin Ice
n the shadows of the COVID-19 pandemic, the State of Israel is making a serious move. In a matter of weeks, it will be decided whether the Jewish state will annex parts of the landlocked territory of the West Bank. While speculations about the effects of such a move on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are in full swing, little attention has been placed on the future of Israel’s relations with other states in the Middle East. This article stresses how an annexation could affect Israel’s relationship with one of its most important strategic partners in the region: the Arab Republic of Egypt.
French-made weapons in Yemen? A reflection on today’s arms business
Disarmament is not a straightforward process. It does not only serve to decrease the world’s number of weapons, but also to monitor the use of existing ones. It constitutes a challenge, as national interests, lobbyists, ethics and moral values clash with one another. Although France and other states express their willingness to contribute to a worldwide disarmament, the data show another story.
Securitising people movements in Europe: Political divergence on migration management
The history of humankind is a history of people movements, with new perceptions of space as a triggering factor for major historical breaks. [1] Migration, defined as ‘the process of people travelling to a new place to live’ [2], has, indeed, always been a common feature of human societies. [3] But, while migrations have significantly enriched European societies in the era of mass movement [4], a shift seems to have occurred in our understanding of national borders.