Military stalemate and peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban
The Taliban offensive contributes to the heated atmosphere shortly before the parliamentary elections in October 2018. Another suicidal attack took place close to the independent election commission in Kabul [16].
While the US military underestimates the importance of Taliban’s control over provincial districts, the Taliban is proving the opposite – using provincial areas for retreat and planning assaults on major cities [19]. This was the same case at the 2015 siege of Kunduz when the city was slowly surrounded by insurgents, taking over the city step-by-step, which took the ANSF two weeks to retake [20].
From a broader perspective, the new US war strategy for Afghanistan published in 2017 foresees a retreat of ANSF from provincial outposts back to the major cities resembling the small footprint approach adopted by the Bush and Obama administrations [21]. As the examples of Kunduz in 2015 and now Ghazni show, this provides ground for the Taliban. Leading to sufficient time and resources to gather strength; there is space for poppy cultivation fields, training camps, and recruitment. The Taliban is trying to take over major provincial cities such as Kunduz, Helmand, Farah, and now Ghazni since the US led forces took a supportive role in 2014 [22].
After the Eid al-Fitr cease-fire the Taliban gained leverage for future peace negotiations as they proved capable to launch coordinated and major offensives [23]. The Afghan government is facing difficulty convincing critics of the peace efforts [24]. A US delegation met with the Taliban on 23rd July in Doha, Qatar; bilateral talks with the Americans have been a Taliban demand for years. The lack of time restrictions on US engagement in Afghanistan is an uncertain factor for the Taliban – which might act as an incentive for them to join negotiations [25]. This bilateral meeting certainly indicates that the US wants a solution to the almost 17 years of war. After the offensive in Ghazni it seems like the Taliban has increased their negotiation weight and sent their message of strength [26].
Sources:
[1] The Defense Post (2018): Taliban and the Afghan government both claim
control over Ghazni city,
https://thedefensepost.com/2018/08/11/afghanistan-taliban-government-control-ghazni/
accessed 13th of August 2018.
[2] The New York Times (2018): Why the Taliban’s Assault on Ghazni Matters for
Afghanistan and the U.S., By Mujib Mashal
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/13/world/asia/why-the-talibans-assault-on-ghazni-matters-for-afghanistan-and-the-us.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fworld&action=click&contentCollection=world®ion=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront
accessed on 14th of August 2018.
[3] The Defense Post (2018): Taliban and the Afghan government both claim
control over Ghazni city,
https://thedefensepost.com/2018/08/11/afghanistan-taliban-government-control-ghazni/
accessed 13th of August 2018.
[4] The Defense Post (2018): Afghan government asserts ‘complete control’ over
Ghazni after Taliban assault,
https://thedefensepost.com/2018/08/11/afghanistan-government-control-ghazni-taliban/
accessed 13th of August 2018.
[5] The New York Times (2018): Why the Taliban’s Assault on Ghazni Matters for
Afghanistan and the U.S., By Mujib Mashal,
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/13/world/asia/why-the-talibans-assault-on-ghazni-matters-for-afghanistan-and-the-us.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fworld&action=click&contentCollection=world®ion=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront
accessed on 14th of August 2018.
[6] ibid.
[7] The New York Times (2018): Taliban Kill More Than 200 Afghan Defenders on 4
Fronts: ‘a Catastrophe’
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/12/world/asia/afghanistan-ghazni-taliban.html?action=click&module=In%20Other%20News&pgtype=Homepage&action=click&module=News&pgtype=Homepage
accessed on 13th of August 2018.
[8] FDD´s Long War Journal (2018): Ghazni City remains under assault, despite
RS assurances, By Bill Roggio
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2018/08/ghazni-city-remains-under-assault-despite-rs-assurances.php
accessed on 13th of August 2018.
[9] Reuter (2018): Afghan special forces sent to bolster threatened city
defenses, by Hamid Shalizi, Rupam Jain
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-attack/afghan-special-forces-sent-to-bolster-threatened-city-defenses-idUSKBN1KY0MY?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews
accessed on 13th of August 2018.
[10] The New York Times (2018): Taliban Kill More Than 200 Afghan Defenders on
4 Fronts: ‘a Catastrophe’
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/12/world/asia/afghanistan-ghazni-taliban.html?action=click&module=In%20Other%20News&pgtype=Homepage&action=click&module=News&pgtype=Homepage
accessed on 13th of August 2018.
[11] BBC (2018): Afghanistan: Battle-torn Ghazni residents 'can't find food'
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45168890
accessed on 13th of August 2018.
[12] FDD´s Long War Journal (2018): Ghazni City remains under assault,
despite RS assurances, By Bill Roggio,
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2018/08/ghazni-city-remains-under-assault-despite-rs-assurances.php
accessed on 13th of August 2018.
[13] The New York Times (2018): Taliban Kill More Than 200 Afghan Defenders on
4 Fronts: ‘a Catastrophe’
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/12/world/asia/afghanistan-ghazni-taliban.html?action=click&module=In%20Other%20News&pgtype=Homepage&action=click&module=News&pgtype=Homepage
accessed on 13th of August 2018.
[14] ibid.
[15] FDD´s Long War Journal (2018): Ghazni City remains under assault,
despite RS assurances, By Bill Roggio
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2018/08/ghazni-city-remains-under-assault-despite-rs-assurances.php
accessed on 13th of August 2018.
[16] FDD´s Long War Journal (2018): Ghazni City remains under assault,
despite RS assurances, By Bill Roggio
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2018/08/ghazni-city-remains-under-assault-despite-rs-assurances.php
accessed on 13th of August 2018.
[17] FDD´s Long War Journal (2018): Taliban routs Afghan Commandos while overrunning
remote district in Ghazni, By Bill Roggio
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2018/08/taliban-routs-afghan-commandos-while-overrunning-remote-district-in-ghazni.php
accessed on 13th of August 2018.
[18] Reuter (2018): Afghan special forces sent to bolster threatened city defenses
by Hamid Shalizi, Rupam Jain
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-attack/afghan-special-forces-sent-to-bolster-threatened-city-defenses-idUSKBN1KY0MY?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews
accessed on 13th of August 2018.
[19] FDD´s Long War Journal (2018): Ghazni City remains under assault,
despite RS assurances, By Bill Roggio
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2018/08/ghazni-city-remains-under-assault-despite-rs-assurances.php
accessed on 13th of August 2018.
[20] The New York Times (2018): Why the Taliban’s Assault on Ghazni Matters for
Afghanistan and the U.S., By Mujib Mashal
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/13/world/asia/why-the-talibans-assault-on-ghazni-matters-for-afghanistan-and-the-us.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fworld&action=click&contentCollection=world®ion=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront
accessed on 14th of August 2018.
[21] The New York Times(2018): Newest U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan Mirrors Past
Plans for Retreat, By Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Helene Cooper,
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/28/world/asia/trump-afghanistan-strategy-retreat.html
accessed on 14th of August 2018.
[22] The Diplomat (2018):The Trump Administration's Terrible Idea for Afghanistan's Security Forces
https://thediplomat.com/2018/08/the-trump-administrations-terrible-idea-for-afghanistans-security-forces/
By Ghulam Farooq Mujaddidi, accessed on 14th of August 2018.
[23] The Washington Post (2018): Taliban blindsides U.S. forces with surprise Afghan offensive
By Carlo Muñoz
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/aug/13/taliban-surprise-offensive-afghanistan-catches-us-/
accessed on 14th of August 2018.
[24] The New York Times (2018): Why the Taliban’s Assault on Ghazni Matters for Afghanistan
and the U.S., By Mujib Mashal
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/13/world/asia/why-the-talibans-assault-on-ghazni-matters-for-afghanistan-and-the-us.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fworld&action=click&contentCollection=world®ion=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront
accessed on 14th of August 2018.
[25] The Washington Post (2018): Taliban blindsides U.S. forces with surprise Afghan offensive, By Carlo Muñoz
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/aug/13/taliban-surprise-offensive-afghanistan-catches-us-/
accessed on 14th of August 2018.
[26] The Guardian (2018): Taliban hails 'helpful' US talks as boost to Afghan peace process
Memphis Barker and Sami Yousafzai in Islamabad
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/13/taliban-hails-helpful-us-talks-as-boost-to-afghan-peace-process
accessed on 14th of August 2018.