Abstract : When a rising power threatens to displace an incumbent power, historically the result has been war. The rise of China has triggered heated debate within academia. This question- whether the United States (US) and China will fall into the so-called “Thucydides’ Trap”-is of primary relevance today for policymakers worldwide as both countries intensify their rivalry. Should both countries expand their economic, political, security and cultural cooperation, war is unlikely to be an outcome. This essay deals with an emerging power that seeks to find its place in the international system by actively shaping it - from 5G technology, the Belt and Road Initiative and to subversive acts around the globe. The essay concludes with a war between China and the United States being unlikely to take place thanks to the different nature of alliance networks today, the economic interdependence among countries, and the changing public attitude towards war.
By Marija Delova
Keywords: US, China, war, Thycydides Trap, Great Powers
China's economic and technological development in recent decades, from a poor and developing country to global economic power, is not likely to be associated with the name Thucydides. [1] The Greek historian described a scenario when a rising power meets an established power, the increasing influence of the rising power threatens to displace the established, which almost always leads to war. Alison Graham described this as the Thucydides trap. [2] Although globally there are more actors and elements involved than in the ancient war between the Spartans and Athenians, the basic concept of a superpower feeling threatened by a rising power certainly applies to the United States (US) and China and makes their relationship one to consider in terms of potential conflict. In international relations, we call a state a ‘Great Power’ when it has enough military strength to spread its influence on a global scale. Great powers are, therefore, defined by their global behaviour. Yet throughout history, many countries have grown their economies without translating that potential power into the willingness or ability to project military force abroad. [3]
Recently, the rise of China has led to arguments that its growing economic and military strength puts it on a potential collision course with the US. However, while the economy of China is growing, that does not mean that war between the two powers is certain or even likely. The economic success stories of Japan and Germany in the last few decades show that countries do not necessarily translate their economic power into military power. Although China is now the second largest economy, there is still a large gap between China and the US in terms of comprehensive power. For now, China's ambitions seem moderate and can easily be accommodated by the US. China shows a desire for economic interdependence abroad to protect its own internal security and to control a small sphere of influence. It shows almost no appetite for military investments that would allow it to project its power globally. Chinese President Xi Jinping attempted to remodel his country’s export-focused economy to one driven by domestic consumption. He has pursued an active Chinese foreign policy that is safeguarding the country’s interests, something he called the “China Dream”. After a century of weakness, exploitation and national humiliation by Western colonialists, China is now being rebuilt as an emerging power. If China does not challenge the US's predominant position in the world, this is very unlikely to provoke a war. The rivalry between China and the US has now extended to trade, technology, geopolitics and political ideology, but shows no sign of an impending war.
However, there are some parallels to other Thucydides trap case studies, such as the Cold War. Like before, two great powers face off with competing political and social systems. Once again, the conflict is fought through subversive activities around the world, and key technologies, such as the 5G network and Artificial Intelligence, play a crucial role in this. Some are saying that the situation between the US and China is a new Cold War. So far there is no clear bloc formation between the West led by America or a sphere of influence dominated by China. The main reason suggested is that the world is currently too intertwined economically to be split easily by a new Iron Curtain. Even if there is no military confrontation, a Cold War between the US and China would be an enormous burden on the global economy. [4] Highly interdependent relationships have increased the cost of serious conflicts between countries. So, it is in the interests of American allies, China, and the US to maintain mutually restrained competition rather than end up in a war. These countries (ex. Germany) tend to play a moderating role between both powers. Therefore, further economic cooperation and inclusion of China in expanding the 5G network, rather than exclusion, would be the necessary steps to avoid conflicts.
The COVID-19 pandemic could be treated as a common enemy too. Viruses, after all, do not respect borders. No country acting on its own can win the war against this invisible enemy. For now, the common interest in defeating the COVID-19 crisis might have offered a way out of the Thucydides Trap. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized China over its handling of the pandemic. Although his attitude toward China may largely be about election politics, it's no lie that the spread of COVID-19 brought new challenges to the relationship between the world’s two largest economies. It may seem, for now, like good short-term politics for President Trump to criticize China. However, in the long term the two countries may have more to gain from cooperation than confrontation, though this is highly debated among national security experts.
Despite the narrowing power gap between China and the US in political, economic, cultural and social aspects, the disparity between them remains striking in terms of per capita income, military strength, education level, scientific achievement, and technological advancement . [5] Furthermore, the US exercises nearly full dominance over the global commons and international strategic channels, extensive influence and decision-making power in international organizations, and an outsized presence in international cultural arenas. [6] For the time being, since China cannot seriously challenge the American predominance in the world, the US is very unlikely to provoke war with China but will rather seek comparatively more peaceful means of dealing with its new rival. [7]
A direct conflict seems no longer to be a viable option for both countries. That a war is not inevitable is evident from the fact that it has been prevented in the past. When states have avoided war, it required some adjustments in attitudes and actions not just of the challenger but also of the challenged. China and the US need to continue strengthening their communication and cooperation. These past situations also demonstrate how the public’s opinion plays a role in avoiding conflicts. Having in memory the huge losses and casualties caused by the two world wars, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War. The global public’s common hope is for a stable international environment that would allow them to enjoy the benefits of economic development and improved living standards. As political scientist Graham Allison once said: ‘The rise of a 5,000 year old civilization with 1.3 billion people is not a problem that can be solved. It is a state, a chronic state, that has to be managed throughout generations!’ [8]
SOURCES
[1] Charles Smith (1988) History of the Peloponnesian war Thucydide, Harvard University Press.
[2] Graham Allison (2018) Destined for war: can America and China escape Thucydides's trap? , Mariner Books.
[3] There Is No Thucydides Trap Between the U.S. and China, June 08, 2020, available from https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2020/06/08/there_is_no_thucydides_trap_between_the_us_and_china_115359.html accessed on 30th July 2020.
[4] Kalter Krieg zwischen USA und China, 24th July 2020.
https://www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/kommentare/kommentar-kalter-krieg-zwischen-usa-und-china/26027134.html?ticket=ST-11187374-ER7W7lV9Z0ocTp3eKYIK-ap1 accessed on 24th July 2020
[5] Ling S. (2018) ‘Why are China and the US Not destined to fall into the “Thucydides Trap?’, World Century Publishing Corporation and Shanghai Institutes for International Studies China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, Vol. 4, No. 4, pp. 506.
[6] Ibid.
[7] Ibid., p. 507.
[8] Corona befeuert chinesisch-amerikanischen Weltkonflikt, 30th May 2020 https://www.dw.com/de/corona-befeuert-chinesisch-amerikanischen-weltkonflikt/a-53613192 accessed on the 25th July 2020