Swarming Technology is Changing Drone Warfare – Part One of Three

Swarming technology, therefore, represents a disruption in terms of the strategic status quo of warfare due to the low entry cost, the general trend towards more autonomous systems, and the onus of differentiation being placed on those being attacked.

By Caitlin Irvine

‘Swarm technology is nascent, and some have pegged it as the next significant drone innovation’ [1]. It allows a group of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to complete an objective whilst coordinating with one another [2]. It is not pragmatic to ask one individual to monitor up to 250 UAVs so the operator delegates a task to the swarm and monitors the network that senses, communicates, and computes the surrounding environment [3]. Investment in this subset of independently operating systems has made the use of swarming technology in operational theatres a topical matter.

 The economic case for this new technology is clearly attractive as shown by the two major players investment in the field. The US Army’s funding for robotics for 2017-2021 has tripled to $900 million whilst China currently holds the world record for the largest swarm of drones collectively controlled at the Guangzhou Air show in 2017 [4]. The cost of a swarm relative to a harpoon missile (around $1.2 million) highlights that creating an entire swarm may be cheaper than building conventional defence systems [5]. Swarm technology has been developed primarily in small quadcopters because they are cheaper, easier to transport, and can be deployed in a shorter time than larger hardware such as the Predator B or MQ9-Reaper [6].

 Militarily, these small drone swarms provide several advantages in a built-up operational theatre where bottlenecks are common and buildings or trees can reduce the signal range. Quadcopters are adaptable simply because of their size – they are able to navigate through narrow urban terrain [7]. A swarm can also project further than an individual quadcopter; by placing members of the swarm at different points along the approach to an operational area they can act as relay stations back to the base station where the operator is [8].

 The issue surrounding swarms is how to defend against them. Their innovation causes a paradigm shift. Due to their ability to overwhelm and confuse traditional radar detection-based missile shields mass again becomes a decisive factor on the battlefield [9]. ‘A manned or unmanned aircraft can be brought down by a single missile, but a swarm can take multiple hits’; this places a military with a dilemma of how to respond to a swarm without looking like the aggressor [10]. Simply put, ‘there is lower costs for offense relative to the difficulty of defending against a swarm’ [11].

 Swarming technology therefore represents a disruption in terms of the strategic status quo of warfare due to the low entry cost, the general trend towards more autonomous systems, and the onus of differentiation being placed on those being attacked. Militaries are interested in developing and deploying swarm technology because of the cost-effective advantages it presents in urban environments and the difficulties of defending against such a system. Their use in contested areas could lead to a perpetual cycle of warfare given that the best way to respond to a swarm of UAVs is to deploy your own. The investment drone swarms have received from both civil and military entities shows that they are an important developmental step for the future conduct of warfare. However, the growing trend towards autonomous weapons is concerning primarily because of the lack of thought given to the knock-on effects of such weaponry. 

Sources:

[1] Sims, A (2018) ‘How do we thwart the latest terrorist threat: swarms of weaponised drones?’The Guardian

[online]

available at: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/19/terrorists-threat-weaponised-drones-swarm-civilian-military-syria accessed on 11th April 2018

[2] Hambling, D (2016) ‘Drone Swarms will change the face of modern warfare’, Wired

[online] available at: http://www.wired.co.uk/article/drone-swarms-change-warfare

Accessed 10th April 2018

[3] Lachow, I (2017) ‘The upside and downside of swarming drones’,

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol 73:2, p96

[4] Ibid.

[5] Hambling, D (2016) ‘Drone Swarms will change the face of modern warfare’, Wired

[online] available at: http://www.wired.co.uk/article/drone-swarms-change-warfare

Accessed 10th April 2018

[6] Bürkle, A, Segor, F, and Kollman, M (2011) ‘Towards Autonomous Micro UAV Swarms’

Journal of Intelligent And Robotic Systems, Vol 61(1-4), p340

[7] Ibid.

[8] Hambling, D (2016) ‘Drone Swarms will change the face of modern warfare’, Wired

[online] available at: http://www.wired.co.uk/article/drone-swarms-change-warfare

Accessed 10th April 2018

[9] Feng, E and Clover, C (2017) ‘Drone swarms vs conventional arms: China’s military debate’,

The Financial Times [online] available at: https://www.ft.com/content/302fc14a-66ef-11e7-8526-7b38dcaef614

Accessed on 16th April 2017

[10] Hambling, D (2016) ‘Drone Swarms will change the face of modern warfare’, Wired

[online] available at: http://www.wired.co.uk/article/drone-swarms-change-warfare

Accessed 10th April 2018

[11] Kania, E (2017) ‘Swarms at war: Chinese advances in Swarm Intelligence’

The Jamestown Foundation: China Brief, Vol 17, Issue 9, p14

Author’s Further Reading

[1] Kumar, V (2015) ‘The Future of Flying Robots’, Ted Talks [online]

Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ge3--1hOm1s A

ccessed on 9th April 2018

[2] Boyle, MJ (2013) ‘The Costs and Consequences of Drone Warfare’

International Affairs, Vol 89: 1 (2013) pp1–29

[3] Nurkin, T (2016) ‘Unmanned ground vehicles: technology and market trends’

Jane’s Review [online]

available at: http://www.janes.com/article/61176/security-unmanned-ground-vehicles-technology-and-market-trends-es2016d1

Accessed on 10th April 2018

BIG WORLD, BIG DATA

The number of potential applications for the use of big data is immense. Initially intended as a private sector tool, big data is now finding its place within the realm of politics. Cambridge Analytica’s involvement in the Trump and Brexit campaigns has demonstrated the onset of a new era where big data may be used not only for population analysis, but also to influence the political views and preferences of the population as well.

By Yuliia Kondrushenko

The evolution of technology and the use of big data has forcefully shifted the balance of power relations within society. It is no longer the person who watches the algorithm, but rather the algorithm watching the person [2]. The main features of big data – volume, velocity, and variety – create a very appealing tool as it allows for the discernment of patterns and relationships that are not readily evident from the input data itself.

Big data is increasing “situational awareness” by recording trends that are taking place. This is often used by major supermarket chains such as Wal-Mart, which handles more than a million customer transactions every hour [4]. For example, customer buying behaviour records can demonstrate if the person is conservative, or if they are prone to shifting preferences based on prices, branding, and other factors. Nevertheless, one must be aware that big data can only show event correlation and cannot concretely explain causation.

Due to the corporate-centric nature of big data collection, this sector is where it will be deployed. Big data is an essential tool for detecting bank fraud; should a transaction deviate from the customer’s normal buying patterns, the bank is able to block the activity immediately [5]. But contrary to commercial application, deployment of big data analysis “for the public good” has not been widespread. One place big data could have been useful was the 2007 mortgage crisis in the United States, which began the world financial crisis of 2008. Had big data analysis been performed in relation to debt securities, the bubble may have been halted at its inception.

This is where the limitations of big data analysis become obvious though. The first issue is the amount of data available for algorithmic consumption. The predictive power of big data can only be strengthened by a “significant number of known instances of a particular behaviour” [6]. This means that while bank fraud is a common and well-researched problem with a distinguished pattern, unprecedented crises like the mortgage bubble are not easily predictable.

Another limitation comes from the creation of the algorithm itself. Consumption of an “example data” set creates the operation with the task of finding correlations in the data [7]. Data, which is separate from the example set, is then used to test the effectiveness of the resulting algorithm. This can sometimes create an algorithm that is efficient at forecasting based on the sample used to create it, but is still inadequate for classification of new test data.

While there is a significant risk of result politicization – where the data expert will find scenarios they were initially hoping to find – the fast expansion of available data sets and their dynamic nature makes big data analysis a very powerful tool for business and research.

Sources:

[1]Cárdenas, A., Manadhata, P. and Rajan, S. (2013). Big Data Analytics for Security Intelligence.

[ebook] Cloud Security Alliance, pp.1-22. Available at: https://cloudsecurityalliance.org/download/big-data-analytics-for-security-intelligence/

[2]Jani, K. (2016). The Promise and Prejudice of Big Data in Intelligence Community.

[ebook] Ithaca: The Computing Research Repository Journal, pp.1-19.

https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.08629

[3]Seifert, J. (2007). Data Mining and Homeland Security: An Overview.

Washington D.C.: Congressional Research Service, pp.1-29.

[4]Troester, M. (2012). Big Data Meets Big Data Analytics. [ebook] SAS Institute Inc., pp.1-11.

https://www.sas.com/content/dam/SAS/en_us/doc/whitepaper1/big-data-meets-big-data-analytics-105777.pdf

[5]Cárdenas, A., Manadhata, P. and Rajan, S. (2013). Big Data Analytics for Security Intelligence.

[ebook] Cloud Security Alliance, pp.1-22.

https://cloudsecurityalliance.org/download/big-data-analytics-for-security-intelligence/

[6]Seifert, J. (2007). Data Mining and Homeland Security: An Overview.

Washington D.C.: Congressional Research Service, pp.1-29.

[7]Jani, K. (2016). The Promise and Prejudice of Big Data in Intelligence Community.

[ebook] Ithaca: The Computing Research Repository Journal, pp.1-19. Available at: https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.08629

3D PRINTING AND NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION

The combination of innovation and digitalisation poses a threat to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as the current institutional framework is targeted at objects, not information. The spread of technology does not fall under the jurisdiction of the NPT and is, due to its digital nature, hard to regulate.

By Caitlin Irvine

The political implications of the recent technological tsunami have yet to be fully explored. Additive Manufacturing (AM), the broader term for 3D printing is one such area as it is displaying the potential to alter the global nuclear balance. Although AM technology has been in use since the 1980s, investment in 3D printing has increased in the 21st century as the initial intellectual property rights expired [1].

After a non-profit organisation called Defence Distributed produced the Computer Aided Design files for a 3D printed handgun, the plans were downloaded over 100,000 times around the world before the cease and desist order came into effect [2]. Although currently it is not possible to use this technology to manufacture nuclear weapons due to the export controls on the maraging steel required for use in centrifuges, 3D printing represents a potential proliferation pathway [3]. The combination of innovation and digitalisation poses a threat to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as the current institutional framework is targeted at objects, not information. The spread of technology does not fall under the jurisdiction of the NPT and is, due to its digital nature, hard to regulate.

The need for a regulatory framework, however, is urgent. In 2015, General Electric used a AM process called Direct Metal Laser Melting to produce a jet engine capable of 33,000 rotations per minute, similar to the requirements of a uranium-enriching centrifuge [4]. As 3D printing technology, expands in the aerospace industry it will develop a reputation for quality manufacturing; an example of this emerging trend is Raytheon, the U.S. defence contractor, who is attempting to use 3D printing technology to create components of a guided missile system that can be used for a nuclear warhead [5].

Policy must keep comfortable pace with technological advances. Even though AM is still an evolving technology, policy is seriously lagging behind. With no export controls or centralised manufacturing base for the AM industry, the technology is decentralised and open source – to such a degree that my flatmate built two 3D printers in his bedroom for his undergraduate dissertation. Presently, it is possible to almost completely build handguns, grenade launchers, drones, and even guided missiles [6]. Developments in AM technology are therefore likely to impact the system of global governance and non-proliferation because of the variety of products that can be produced. Especially since there is no way of knowing in what hands this knowledge will end up.

Sources:

[1] Kruth, JP, Leu, MC, and Nakagawa, T (1998) ‘Progress in Additive Manufacturing and Rapid Prototyping’,

CIRP Annals, Vol 47: 2, pp 52. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0007-8506(07)63240-5

[2] Morelle, R (2013) ‘US government orders removal of Defcad 3D-gun designs’ [online] BBC News

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-22478310

[3] Christopher, G 2015, '3D Printing: A Challenge to Nuclear Export Controls'

Strategic Trade Review, vol 1, no. 1, 2, pp. 22.http://www.str.ulg.ac/3D_Printing_A_Challenge

[4] GEreports (2015) ‘The 3D Printed Jet Engine’, YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6A4-AKICQU

[5] Raytheon (2017) ‘To Print a Missile: Raytheon research points to 3-D printing for tomorrow's technology’

[online] https://www.raytheon.com/news/feature/print-missile

[6] Fey, M (2017) ‘The Increasing Salience of 3D Printing for Nuclear Non-Proliferation’ [online],

Peace Research Institute Frankfurt Blog, https://blog.prif.org/