When asked to identify trends that shape the world today, most commonly listed issues were climate change, the rise of China as a global power, the surge of nationalism, and the potential implications of artificial intelligence1. The World Economic Forum’s Global Shapers found that ‘nearly half (48.8%) of the survey participants chose climate change as their top concern, and 78.1% said they would be willing to change their lifestyle to protect the environment’2. The impact of Climate Change on the environment can be felt in many areas including the intensification of natural disasters, the increasing number of endangered species, arctic ice melting, and the expansion of the Sahara3. When attempting to comprehend the security implications as a result of climate conditions, it is important to refer to aspects that have the potential to affect everyday life for communities. This piece presents the impact of Climate Change on the Global South and focuses on Sub-Saharan regions in regard to accessibility to natural resources and its relation with intra-regional migration.

By Sawsan Khalife

What makes a country vulnerable to climate change?

The changing climate is a global phenomenon expected to be felt across all regions. Many countries in the Middle East are already experiencing increasing droughts in wintertime, research by the Journal of Climate points out that 12 of the world’s 15 most water-scarce countries are placed in the Middle East4. The impact of changing climate conditions is too complex to place in one category, the same goes for the reason that one country is impacted more than another. In trying to make sense of the scope and shape of its influence, Niall Smith, an expert who analyses regions’ vulnerability to Climate Change, argues that the countries with the lowest levels of economic development will face greater climate challenges as a result of a combination of socio-economic, governmental, and geographical factors rendering them less equipped to deal with the current and future threats5. Smith further identifies six places in the Global South that will be especially vulnerable to climate changing conditions. In addition to Haiti, due to hurricane frequency and intensity, Lagos in Nigeria is impacted due to the population’s rapid expansion and its strain on infrastructure and resources, especially as it is located on the Gulf of Guinea that is subject to sea levels rise. Furthermore, Yemen is highly vulnerable due to its ineffective government and weak institutions. Having been embroiled in a civil war since 2015, millions are suffering malnutrition, shortage of water, and famine. Wealthy countries can also be at risk from climate conditions, as in the case of United Arab Emirates, due to its geographic location, faces extreme water stress and temperature rise, with tremendous inequality levels6. Even though it has the technology and economic advantages to face climate conditions, it remains unclear whether distribution will be equal amongst the whole population. Finally, Manila in the Philippines and Kiribati in the central Pacific Ocean are also on the list of most vulnerable countries in the Global South. When looking at North and Sub-Saharan Africa regions, though the collective 54 countries’ contribution to greenhouse emissions is only around 2-3% globally, most of the vulnerable regions to the climate conditions are positioned on the African continent. The Climate Change Vulnerability Index 20157 found that seven out of ten countries that are at extreme risk from the temperature conditions are positioned across the regions of Sub Saharan Africa, namely Sierra Leone and Nigeria in West Africa, Chad and Central African Republic in Central Africa and South Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea in East Africa. Furthermore, the United Nations (UN) Climate Change conference in Nairobi8 revealed that this region’s countries are most vulnerable to and least prepared for the impact of climate change, already experiencing 0.7C increase in temperature. This is especially crucial because African nations are facing a prolonged drought mainly across three regions in southern, eastern, and the Horn of Africa, driving up the aid needs to approximately 45 million people in 14 countries9. New research warns that there will be many extreme outbreaks of intense rainfall which will hit the continent in coming years leading to floods10.

Food and Water Security

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) research found that the projected changes in Africa’s regions is the critical impact on water security11. As one of the most critical issues facing the continent, climate change imposes pressure on availability and accessibility of water. The research found that current projections place 75-250 million people at risk of increased water stress in the next decade. Furthermore, a UN report predicts that water availability will be the main cause of national conflict in the next 25 years12. Water resources are declining as a result of drying-up rivers, flooding, drought, and inconsistencies in rainfall. This is a severe problem as most nations are heavily dependent on rain for agriculture and food distribution. Unbalanced distribution of rain will lead to reduction in crop yields and livestock productivity, causing significant changes in the landscape across the region13.

According to the IPCC, the Western Sahel region will experience the strongest drought. The area experiences a population growth rate of 2.8% annually which will expedite shrinking land and water resources, and primary dependence on rain-fed agriculture14. Findings show that in addition to the drought conditions, the Sahel has also been challenged with around five million people being displaced in 2019 as a result of armed conflict and 24 million in need of humanitarian assistance, making the resource scarcity even more crucial. The West Africa region will have to adjust to a reduced crop production and risk its food security prospects as a result, and Southern Africa will go through droughts and heat waves in the coming decades. Afrobarometer15 conducted a cross-regional survey between 2016 and 2018 consisting of 45 thousand respondents in 34 countries to observe how climate conditions affect the livelihood of farmers. Respondents16 answered that climate conditions for agriculture production have worsened over the past decade for the participants from 30 of the 34 countries with North Africans less likely to report a negative impact on crops. This negative impact of climate change reaches all dimensions of food security, in relation to availability, economic and physical accessibility, utilisation, and stability over time17.

The Migration-Climate nexus

The aforementioned impacts on food and water security have direct relation to the internal migration across the regions, they will serve as a significant push factor in internal migration18. Intra-regional migration flows in West Africa can be explained by a well-entrenched tradition shaped by kinship and religious networks, demographic factors, security and livelihood, and a fear of terrorist attacks19. However, strong evidence shows that the climate conditions are compounding migration in West Africa20. The flow of people is shown to arrive mostly from the Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad) as a coping strategy to fight the scarce resources of a dry and deteriorating landscape, to better prospects in the West Africa region in countries with more plantations, mining and coastal activities such as Cote d’Ivorie, Nigeria, Senegal, Ghana and Gambia21. Northwest Africa is facing rising sea levels, desertification, and drought, which will likely add to the number of seasonal migrants22. These migration conditions will intensify if global emissions increase. A Groundswell report by the World Bank on Internal Climate Migration in Sub-Saharan Africa23 reveals that by 2050 the expected number of internal migrants could reach 85 million, around 4% of the total population of the region, if CO2 emissions increase. East Africa, which is highly dependent on rainfed agriculture, could see an average of 10 million climate migrants by 2050 under similar conditions. However, the report also shows that internal migration will increase regardless of the changes in global greenhouse gas emissions. This is mainly due to lower water availability and crop productivity, combined with rising sea levels and storm surges.

Climate Change is a challenging phenomenon and we are yet to understand its full scope and influence. It is affecting various places in the world, especially the regions in Africa. This piece attempted to map those impacts on the continent by referring to recent findings and analyses. In the future research is needed into how Climate Change impacts are going to shape the national security of countries, and how the regional security is affected as a result.