Achieving 100% Renewable Energy: Political Challenges, Strategic Independence, and the Armed Forces

Achieving 100% renewable energy can not only reduce the effects of climate change, but also increase states’ strategic independence and their armed forces’ effectiveness. How can a society feasibly achieve 100% renewable energy, why are these ambitions important, and what impact would this have on armed forces?

By Marijn Pronk, Hendrik A. Pasligh & Javier Martínez Mendoza

Achieving 100% renewable energy

From a technological perspective, previous research has predominantly focused on the electricity sector. But in order to achieve the goal of complete energy renewability, a more holistic and cross-sectoral approach is necessary[1]. Technologies and industries from the supply side, i.e. energy storage and system efficiency, need to be connected to the demand side, i.e. reducing the need for energy supply through energy efficient technologies. These approaches are vital for transitioning into a 100% renewable energy system, whilst remaining in the limits that sustainable resources could offer[2,3]. Other contingencies that need to be considered are the different energy dependencies and demographics of particular countries. Brazil, with its massive Amazonian rainforest, will need different policies with regards to energy autonomy compared to Norway, which can derive almost all its electricity from hydro-power. All countries will need to forge a uniquely tailored path to deal with the effects of climate change. 

Political concerns are the main culprits preventing renewable energy policies from being implemented. Key barriers include climate science denial, the power of fossil fuel lobbies, political paralysis, outdated infrastructures, and financial and governmental constraints[4]. It is critical to overcome these obstacles in order to create a feasible plan to achieve a state in which society can depend on 100% renewable energy. Transparency, accountability, and close co-operation with public and private spheres will be paramount[5}. Country-specific action plans are necessary to equally divide the resource burdens. 

Strategic independence through renewables?

The interactions between producers, transit, and consumer countries condition the balance of power between states. Moreover, the availability of energy resources has been associated with a state’s capacity not only to increase its security and prosperity, but also to exert power in global affairs[6, 7, 8]. Achieving 100% renewable energy has the potential to challenge these dynamics. With that in mind, energy independence comes to play an important role on the assertiveness of states’ foreign policies. Asymmetric interdependence can explain the complex relationship between Russia and the European Union members. For instance, the fact that Germany is the single largest consumer of Russian gas influences its position on Russia’s hostile behaviour in Eastern Europe[9]. Germany’s position demonstrates that dependence on foreign energy supplies can limit states’ policy options.

Policy-makers have sought to achieve strategic independence through conventional fuels instead of renewables. However, a reflection on the U.S. efforts towards self-sufficiency through shale fuels, can prove this alternative as ill-fated. Due to the nature of oil and gas as commodities that bind their price to the dynamics of global trade, American consumers will remain susceptible to price hikes caused by energy supply disruptions abroad[10, 11]. The United States will not be able to disengage from the Middle East and rely less on Persian Gulf monarchies without transitioning to renewable energy. States’ willingness to undertake forceful military policies to protect strategic infrastructure of the energy supply chain can be illustrated by international considerations to spend a significant amount of resources[12] to deploy maritime forces and secure the Strait of Hormuz.

Contrary to fossil fuels, renewables represent less centralised and more locally driven energy sources. An energy transition would push the international landscape towards a more multipolar world, where net energy importers have better chances of energy independence, while alignments and dependencies currently based on conventional fuels will rearrange. Moreover, if renewables become mainstream, co-operation on climate change would strengthen and conflicts based on energy resources would eventually be less common[13, 14]. Nonetheless, this transition would not be exempt of shortcomings. For instance, political support of renewables tends to be cyclical, not constant, and a sudden shift from other energy sources might bring societal disruptions. Also, the consolidation of renewables could spark new conflicts and dependencies over newly exploited resources. Hence, a long-term approach that seeks diversification and sectoral transition first might be more beneficial than a full-scale shift to renewables[15, 16].

Renewables and the armed forces

The military represents a strong option among the sectors that could embrace the transformation. This potential arises both from the military’s massive consumption of energy[17] and its ability to promote new technologies as an early adopter. Arguments suggesting that armed forces should focus on their mission rather than saving the environment overlook the fact that renewable energy can actually significantly improve combat effectiveness and readiness. This holds true for domestic and forward bases as well as military vehicles and ships. "These technologies are a way to become more effective in combat'' said Col. Brian Magnuson, the head of the U.S. Marines’ expeditionary energy office: "this is about war-fighting capability”[18].

Domestic bases are vulnerable to power blackouts because they are connected to large power grids[19]. The advantage of renewable energy is that it can be cost-efficiently deployed in smaller units, thus allowing for decentralisation of power production[20]. The issue of energy security is even more critical in forward bases, both on the operational and strategic level. The many fuel convoys which supplied ISAF troops in Afghanistan, for example, were frequently attacked and suffered casualties[21]. There are several technologies already being developed and tested in the field. Among these are bullet-proof solar panels[22] and variations of mobile containers for power production, including hybrid energy production and storage systems. The latter are mainly based on solar power but can intelligently switch between multiple sources[23] and a “mini hydroelectric power station”[24].

A more difficult task is to fuel military vehicles, ships, and planes. Disruptions in global oil supply or even just small price fluctuations pose significant risks. Here, the U.S. Navy is at the forefront of creating a market for biofuels[25]. Ships and aircraft using blends including biofuel have been tested successfully[26]. While it will most likely not be possible in the foreseeable future to run tanks[27] and combat aircraft[28] on electricity, hybrid-electric ground vehicles[29] can reduce noise and dependency on resupply and thus decrease detectability[30] and increase the endurance of operations.

Sources

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[2] Mathiesen, B / Lund, H / Hansen, K / Ridjan, I / Djørup, S, & Nielsen, S (2015). ‘IDA's Energy Vision 2050: A Smart Energy System strategy for 100% renewable Denmark’, Department of Development and Planning, Denmark, Aalborg University.

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[4] Wiseman, J / Edwards, T, & Luckins, K (2013), ‘Post Carbon Pathways: Towards a Just and Resilient Post Carbon Future’, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, Melbourne, Centre for Policy Development, October 10, 2019, p. 5.

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[9] Keating, D. (07.19.2018) ‘How Dependent is Germany on Russian Gas?,’ Forbes, [online] available from https://www.forbes.com/sites/davekeating/2018/07/19/how-dependent-is-germany-on-russian-gas/#6eb049643b48

[10] Cunningham, T. (2016).

[11] Bordoff, J. (09.18.2019) ‘The Myth of U.S. Energy Independence Has Gone Up In Smoke,’ Foreign Policy, [online] available from https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/18/the-myth-of-u-s-energy-independence-has-gone-up-in-smoke/.

[12] Masala, Carlo / Mölling, Christian / Schütz, Torben (2019) ‘Ein Schiff wird kommen? Deutsche Maritime Optionen in der Straße von Hormus,’ DGAPkompakt, Vol. 15.

[13] Criekemans, D. (2018).

[14] Global Commission on the Geopolitics of Energy Transformation (2019) ‘A New World: The Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation,’ IRENA, [online] available from https://geopoliticsofrenewables.org/assets/geopolitics/Reports/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Global_commission_renewable_energy_2019.pdf.

[15] Dreyer, I. (2013).

[16] Global Commission on the Geopolitics of Energy Transformation. (2019).

[17] Center for International Policy (2019) ‘Sustainable Defense: More Security, Less Spending,’ [online] available from https://static.wixstatic.com/ugd/fb6c59_59a295c780634ce88d077c391066db9a.pdf , accessed on 22nd December 2019, pp. 22, 54.

[18] Gardner, T (2017) ‘ U.S. military marches forward on green energy, despite Trump,’ [online] available from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-military-green-energy-insight/u-s-military-marches-forward-on-green-energy-despite-trump-idUSKBN1683BL , accessed on 7th November 2019.

[19] Greilich, T (2019) ’Blackout: Zu den Auswirkungen eines Blackouts auf die Bundeswehr,‘ wehrtechnik III/2019, p. 68-69.

[20] American Council on Renewable Energy (2018) The Role of Renewable Energy in National Security Issue Brief, p. 5.

[21] Kosowatz, J (2018) ‘Military Looks to Renewables in Battle Zones,’ [online] available from https://www.asme.org/topics-resources/content/military-looks-renewables-battle-zones , accessed on 7th November 2019.

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[23] Kosowatz

[24] Khurshid, S (2019) ‘The Green Future of NATO and the Procurement of Environmentally Friendly Defence Merchandise,’ [online] available from http://natoassociation.ca/the-green-future-of-nato-and-the-procurement-of-environmentally-friendly-defense-merchandise/ , accessed on 7th November 2019.

[25] Matthews, W (2012) ‘Bio Fleet,’ [online] available from https://www.govexec.com/magazine/features/2012/01/bio-fleet/35739/ , accessed on 9th November 2019.

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[27] Kohlhoff, J / Müller, S (2014) ‘Technische Implikationen für eine „Postfossile Bundeswehr“,‘ Fraunhofer-Institut, p. 32.

[28] Nätzker, W (2014) ‘All Electric Aircraft,’ Europäische Sicherheit & Technik, June, p. 77.

[29] Union of Concerned Scientists (2014) ‘The US Military and Oil’ [online] available from https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/us-military-and-oil , accessed on 7th November 2019.

[30] Berdikeeva, S (2017) ‘The US Military: Winning the renewable war,’ [online] available from https://www.energydigital.com/renewable-energy/us-military-winning-renewable-war , accessed on 7th November 2019.

[31] Illustration: María Gómez 2019