Through the intricate dynamics of China-Taiwan relations amidst the US Secretary of State and Antony Blinken's recent visit to China, this article examines the key issues discussed by the US and Chinese counterparts. It further delves into China's strategic manoeuvres following Blinken's departure to shed light on the complexities of maintaining stability in the region amidst competing territorial claims and diplomatic tensions.
BY Ayesha Zafar
Introduction
The relationship between China and Taiwan is characterised by historical complexities, political tensions, and differing interpretations of sovereignty. Following the Chinese Civil War in 1949, the defeated Kuomintang (KMT) retreated to Taiwan, establishing the Republic of China (ROC) government while the victorious Communist Party of China (CPC) formed the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland. Both claim to be the legitimate government of China, which has led to a persistent struggle over Taiwan's status. On the one hand, China views Taiwan as an integral part of its territory and seeks reunification, by force if necessary ; Taiwan, on the other hand, asserts its sovereignty and operates as a separate political entity. Tensions have arisen from these conflicting claims, exacerbated by international recognition, military posturing, and diplomatic manoeuvring, with issues such as arms sales from the United States to Taiwan further complicating the situation. Efforts at dialogue and cooperation are often overshadowed by deep-rooted historical grievances and the geopolitical interests of major powers in the Asia-Pacific region.
US Secretary of State Visit to China:
In April 2024, the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, visited China to meet his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi and President Xi Jinping [1]. Intending to improve people-to-people contact between the two countries, several topics were discussed, such as China’s support to Russia, the South China Sea, Taiwan and economic sanctions. Talking about China’s support for Russia, Blinken stated that the supply of Chinese dual-use goods is ‘having a material effect in Ukraine’ and raising the threat Russia poses to countries in Europe [2]. He further warned China that the US and its European allies will not tolerate this sale of weapons to Russia which is helping President Vladimir Putin to rebuild and modernise his arms factories [3]. In response, Chinese officials stated that China has not supplied any weapons to Russia, nor does it play a role in the Ukraine crisis. They further argued that China’s trade and economic exchange with other countries is based on ‘equality and mutual benefit’ and therefore should not be ‘infringed on’ [4].
Reiterating its sovereignty over Taiwan, Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi also stated that the US must not cross “red lines” with regards to the issues of security and sovereignty-a seeming reference to the disputed South China Sea and Taiwan [5]. It further added that ‘China will closely follow the trends of relevant [US] bills and take resolute and effective measures to safeguard its sovereignty, security and territorial integrity’ [6]. This indicates China's stance and its reaction to President Joe Biden's comments during the November 2023 meeting with President Xi Jinping in San Francisco. During the meeting, Biden assured that the US does not endorse the independence of Taiwan and stated that it would protect the island if it faces an attack [7]. Notably, hours before Blinken’s meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Biden also approved a US$95 billion aid package for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan [8]. This decision is likely to provoke strong reactions from Beijing and escalate existing tensions between the two major powers.
During their meeting, efforts to improve economic ties between the two states also came under focus. With the US imposition of sanctions on Chinese goods and efforts to diversify supply chains to reduce its dependence on China, the trade deficit between the two states increased by tons. Regarding this issue, Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi stated that the US has taken "endless” measures to suppress China’s economic development [19]. President Xi Jinping while stressing the need to address the increasing trade deficit between two countries stated, ‘This is a fundamental issue that must be addressed, just like the first button of a shirt that must be put right, in order for the China-U.S. relationship to truly stabilise, improve and move forward’ [10]. The US, by contrast, has called on China to treat the US businesses fairly and raised concerns about China’s ‘non-market economic practices’ [11]. It has further discussed China’s supply of chemicals that are used to prepare a killer drug, fentanyl which is the reason for most of the American deaths especially between the ages of 18 and 45 [12].
Chinese Jets over Taiwan
China flew around 22 military aircrafts over Taiwan as the three days meeting with Antony Blinken concluded [13]. According to the news, 17 of these aircrafts have crossed what Taiwan has declared an “Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ)” and beyond the “median line” where Taiwan has already deployed Navy vessels, coastal missile system and Combat Air Patrol (CAP) aircraft to deter these activities [14]. Retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Chang Yen-ting cited Ministry of National Defense data revealing that, on April 21, two Chinese fighter jets were observed just 41 nautical miles from Keelung, a port city only 20 km north of Taipei, which implies that it could reach the Presidential Office in approximately five minutes [15].
Notably, this is not the first time that the Chinese jets have crossed ADIZ: China has done it many times over the past few years to convey that its control over Taiwan is undeterred. According to experts, this is part of China’s “grey zone” actions—tactics that are short of an outright act of war—which have seen a surge especially after the 2016 election of Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen [16]. More importantly, since the election of Lai Ching-te as president of Taiwan, which China regards as a “dangerous separatist”, tensions have increased [17]. Lai is due to take charge from May 20 alongside vice president-elect Hsiao Bi-khim, whom China has slammed for supporting ‘the purpose of Taiwan independence’—a redline for Beijing [18].
China has also launched two new air routes near Taiwan-controlled islands, a move seen as part of a broader strategy before the inauguration of Taiwan's president-elect, Lai Ching-te. The routes, announced by China's civil aviation regulator, connect to the existing M503 route along the median line of the Taiwan Strait [19]. This proximity to Taiwan's airspace suggests China's intent to redefine the status quo in the region. It signifies a strategic assertion of its military capabilities and a flexing of geopolitical muscle. These manoeuvres not only showcase China's aerial prowess but also serve as a subtle reminder of its stance on Taiwan's sovereignty, contributing to ongoing tensions and uncertainties in cross-strait relations.
Conclusion
To conclude, the recent developments in China-Taiwan relations, alongside Antony Blinken's visit to China and discussions over the Ukraine Crisis, South China Sea, and Taiwan, underscore the complexity and volatility of the geopolitical landscape in the Asia-Pacific region. China's assertive actions, including its activities in the South China Sea and the deployment of aircraft over Taiwan, demonstrate its resolve to maintain the status quo and assert its territorial claims. Despite diplomatic engagements and efforts to manage tensions, these actions highlight the enduring challenges and competing interests that shape the dynamics between China, Taiwan, and the broader international community. As such, the need for continued dialogue, cooperation, and strategic engagement remains paramount in navigating these complex geopolitical realities and promoting stability in the region.
References:
[1] Reuters. 2024. “Key issues discussed by Blinken in talks with Chinese leaders.” https://www.reuters.com/world/key-issues-discussed-by-blinken-talks-with-chinese-leaders-2024-04-26/
[2] Ibid.
[3] The Guardian. 2024. “Antony Blinken arrives in China with warning for Beijing over support of Russia.” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/24/antony-blinken-china-visit-us-secretary-of-state-beijing
[4] The Guardian. 2024. “Antony Blinken arrives in China with warning for Beijing over support of Russia.” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/24/antony-blinken-china-visit-us-secretary-of-state-beijing
[5] Agenzia Nova. 2024. “Wang to Blinken: “The US should not cross the red lines drawn by China.” https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/wang-a-blinken-gli-usa-non-dovrebbero-oltrepassare-le-linee-rosse-tracciate-dalla-cina/
[6] Xie, K. 2024. “US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrives in China hours after Senate TikTok ban vote, new funding for Taiwan.” SCMP. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3260246/us-secretary-state-antony-blinken-arrives-china-hours-after-senate-tiktok-ban-vote-new-funding
[7] Reuters. 2024. “Key issues discussed by Blinken in talks with Chinese leaders.” https://www.reuters.com/world/key-issues-discussed-by-blinken-talks-with-chinese-leaders-2024-04-26/
[8] The New York Times. 2024. “House Approves $95 Billion Aid Bill for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.” https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/20/us/politics/house-foreign-aid-bill.html
[9] Hansler, J. and McCarthy, S. 2024. “Choose between stability and ‘downward spiral,’ China tells Blinken during Beijing trip.” CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/25/world/stability-spiral-china-blinken-intl-hnk/index.html
[10] China Daily. 2024. “Mutual progress key for relationship: Meeting Blinken, president warns against pursuing zero-sum game.” https://mobile.chinadaily.com.cn/cn/html5/2024-04/27/content_001_662be8dced50dde094231791.htm
[11] Aljazeera. 2024. “US top diplomat Blinken calls for ‘level playing field’ for firms in China.” https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/24/us-top-diplomat-blinken-visits-china-amid-escalated-tensions-over-taiwan
[12] The Guardian. 2024. “Antony Blinken arrives in China with warning for Beijing over support of Russia.” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/24/antony-blinken-china-visit-us-secretary-of-state-beijing
[13] Başaran, D. 2024. “Chinese jets fly over Taiwan strait after US delegation departs.” Turkiye News. https://www.turkiyenewspaper.com/world/22352
[14] Satam, P. 2024. “Chinese Jet Comes Within 5 Minutes of ‘Hitting’ Taiwan’s Top Office; Ex-Commander Says Hard to Stop PLA.” Eurasian Times. https://www.eurasiantimes.com/chinese-jet-comes-within-5-minutes-of-hitting-taiwans-top-office-ex-commander-says-hard-to-stop-pla/#google_vignette
[15] RFA. 2024. “Chinese fighter jets could reach Taiwan Presidential Office in minutes: expert.” https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/pla-fighters-taiwan-04252024041816.html
[16] France 24. 2024. “Record number of Chinese aircraft detected around Taiwan, says govt.” https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20240322-record-number-of-chinese-aircraft-detected-around-taiwan-says-govt
[17] Tan, C. 2024. “China skeptic Lai Ching-te wins Taiwan’s presidential election.” CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/13/taiwan-2024-election-dpps-lai-ching-te-wins.html
[18] France 24. 2024. “Record number of Chinese aircraft detected around Taiwan, says govt.” https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20240322-record-number-of-chinese-aircraft-detected-around-taiwan-says-govt
[19] Yang, W. 2024. “China ups pressure on Taiwan, opens new air routes.” VOA. https://www.voanews.com/a/china-ups-pressure-on-taiwan-opens-new-air-routes/7580040.html
