An Interview Series on the Political Implications of the Pandemic
By Fabiana Natale and Gilles de Valk
For this interview series, Fabiana Natale and Gilles de Valk speak to experts from different backgrounds on the political implications of the COVID-19 pandemic in their respective fields. From their living rooms in France and The Netherlands, they will explore the (geo)political, security, and societal consequences of this pandemic. This interview series marks the launch of a new type of content for the Security Distillery, one which we hope can provide informative and entertaining analyses of an uncertain and evolving development in global politics.
For this second episode, we interviewed Mikel Irizar, Operations Specialist at INTERPOL’s Command and Coordination Center in Buenos Aires, Argentina. In our conversation, we discussed the consequences of the pandemic for politics, economics, and organised crime in Latin America, and its impact on the work INTERPOL is doing.
Mikel Irizar’s views do not necessarily reflect those of INTERPOL or any of its member countries.
Can you tell us something about your work? How has your work changed since the start of the pandemic?
INTERPOL brings together police forces for a safer world. We are trying to offer member states the tools and capabilities they need from us, such as expertise, special operational support, or information from databases holding data from 194 countries. We monitor the information that we get from police forces all over the world and redistribute it when necessary.
The pandemic hit us all. Argentina was hit relatively late, but we were sent home at the beginning of March. The type of work has not changed so much, I simply have been working remotely ever since.
Indeed, many professionals have continued working as before, but remotely. While this movement has led to a decrease in crimes, such as murders and thefts, the new working environment has been favourable to an increase in cybercrime. What can you say about these trends? [1]
It is correct that we are seeing less reported crime across Latin America when it comes to murder or armed robberies, for example. In Chile and some other parts of the region, however, people feel like the crime level is staying the same or even rising. Cybercrime, including ransomware, phishing mails, and fraud, on the other hand, has been very present during the pandemic and is increasing since many people are working remotely. In Europe, even hospitals have been targeted.
In order to create cyber awareness globally, INTERPOL is trying to promote their media campaign #WashYourCyberHands. Usual precautions should be taken now more than ever, such as using firewalls, anonymising your online footprint, eliminating potentially harmful cookies, and browsing on secure networks. We should not be afraid to set strong cyber security standards.
The Economist recently published an article titled ‘The pandemic is creating fresh opportunities for organised crime’. Which ‘opportunities’ are the most striking? [2]
The biggest opportunity the pandemic is yielding for organised crime is the fact that criminal organisations are sitting down on billions of economic assets. It is incredible how much money these transnational organisations handle. They are taking this opportunity to see who is in trouble, now that economic turmoil is coming to every household. They have started to buy people, favours, and businesses; it is the perfect moment for such organisations to buy networks that are going to remain loyal in the future. Even though these economic transactions are potentially saving somebody’s problems now, these organisations will come back to haunt them in the near future.
At the same time, in South America, cartels and other large organised crime organisations such as the Cali Cartel in Colombia and Primeiro Comando da Capital and Comando Vermelho in Brazil are reaching out to peripheral areas or densely populated low-income urban centres where they have a strong position, as opposed to the state. In such areas that are populated by millions of people, they are replacing the state by enforcing the quarantine themselves, for example. Theoretically, they are taking care of the people who are in most need, even though it ultimately works against those people. In that sense, the cartels are solidifying their presence in areas where the state already had difficulties reaching out.
It seems organised crime is taking this opportunity to exploit the gap that states had left, helping people with basic needs such as food. This could result in a shift of legitimacy from the state to such organisations. Do you think this trend can be reversed with the end of the pandemic?
I think we have seen this trend for a long time already. It is not a secret that cartels have been considered to be the saviours of communities in Mexico, for example, but also elsewhere. This is a broader trend and, unfortunately, cinema has a lot to do with these false myths. In TV series we can often see how widely admired the figures of the Colombian narco world have been.
However, this trend is being tackled on a daily basis. Although states are currently preoccupied with providing health care for the entirety of their societies, combating organised crime remains a priority.
As the restrictions are easing and we are going back to normality, we can observe a shift back to strong national states. I think we are going to see states regaining the areas that were not well taken care of five years ago, for example, and they will come back and try to reassert themselves over these criminal organisations.
States seem to be increasingly focused on their national interests and state institutions seem to be trying to strengthen through new health and security policies. What does this development mean for INTERPOL and international cooperation in general?
After working here for some time, I believe this is going to make the organisation better. We want states to be strong, because that also means they will cooperate better in this international forum that INTERPOL provides.
However, politically and economically states are also becoming more inward looking. We will need to readjust to whichever way member states change in the near future. We are going to be there, holding their hands at every step, no matter what. At the end of the day, we are international civil servants and we are at their disposal. Although we follow strict direction from international law and human rights, INTERPOL is an organisation that bases its actions on the member states’ contributions, although we rely on private partners for some projects here and there. We will keep trying to provide the same services, capabilities, and expertise.
Nevertheless, nationalist reflexes from states have arguably caused a crisis in multilateralism. How is this impacting INTERPOL and its cooperation with national governments and law enforcement agencies?
For international cooperation we need shared interests, which have always been difficult to find. At INTERPOL, we only go as far as member states allow us to go. However, the mechanisms for sharing of information at INTERPOL are very particular and are ultimately why INTERPOL has survived for almost 100 years. Our organisation is trying to anticipate the way member states would like us to work for them. Every day, we are making small changes to appease member states. So at the moment, nothing is changing in a substantial fashion, but I could not rule out a more substantial change in the future.
Countries such as Uruguay, Brazil, and Nicaragua have been tackling the pandemic very differently, resulting in large differences in the amount of cases they have. What role have the governments played in (limiting) the spread of the virus? [3]
Each country counts differently and it changes every other week, so it is hard to keep track of the actual amount of cases. Nonetheless, there are also other factors that play a role in the amount of cases.
Uruguay, for example, has a relatively small population of three to four million people and covers a geographically reduced area, which yields some benefits on controlling and eventually eradicating the virus outbreak. The Uruguayan success is also a result of several years of pretty solid public health and social policy.
It is not a secret that cases are skyrocketing in Brazil, which is concerning for all the countries in the region. However, it is such a large country when it comes to population and size, making it more difficult to manage the situation. I believe Brazil is trying to overcome these issues and that Brazilian health authorities will eventually get a more firm hand on the crisis.
Regarding Nicaragua, there are disparate opinions on the way the government is handling the crisis. To a certain degree, they have not considered the virus as grave of a threat as other countries. I think it was during Easter that religious processions in the streets were even promoted, for example. However, it seems that they have been able to put a certain level of control into place. Similarly, we have seen US President Trump clearly advocating for the opening of churches. Religion is part of national identities all over the world.
Nevertheless, the aforementioned are very different, politically speaking.
Evidently, the crisis also has a huge economic impact. In Argentina, for instance, an increase in prices was registered and an underground economy is developing.
As far as information is available right now, Argentina is going to default and is in fact talking with the lenders in New York to extend the deadlines to pay back their loans. But the informal nature of business networks and the way people transact and transfer money is an intrinsic part of the region. Many of these matters go unregistered, which makes them very difficult to quantify even though we are living in the age of Big Data. Since a lot is happening under the radar, it is difficult to keep track of everything, from the amount of bank accounts, any given country’s precise population, to the amount of COVID cases right now.
However, countries like Spain see a huge potential in Latin America. So, what does this crisis mean strategically for Latin America and their international relations? [4]
The world is going through a time of geopolitical and geo-economic readjustment. We are witnessing an acceleration of global trends that were already going on before the pandemic.
Latin America is an economically emerging region with historical, linguistic, and cultural links to Europe. Geographically, it has an obvious link with the United States because of the continental mass connecting the two regions. In these times, it seems logical to me that the West relies on those who are more logical allies, so there are definitely opportunities for Latin America.
However, the region has a history of reluctance towards the West because of imperialism. Latin America is also a region that wants to break free from traditional structures of global power. Furthermore, this region is very fragmented. Over the years, Latin American countries have attempted to develop a cooperative framework in order to strengthen and promote better regional dynamics, but they have not yet been as effective as the European Union, for example.
At the end of the day, the region will look for external support or external leadership. In that sense, I see an alignment of common interest here; it is an opportunity for the West as well as Latin America.
What do you think are the key takeaways from this crisis?
We need wider international cooperation; this virus has proven no country is safe on its own. I think denying that does not make sense. Furthermore, we have been overlooking our healthcare systems for far too long. Specialists in global risks, big insurance companies, or international organisations were aware that national healthcare systems were underdeveloped. For years we have been debating how we would do if a pandemic like COVID-19 would strike the world, yet we did not do anything to strengthen our medical capabilities. Each time, we need to do a great exercise of internal deliberation, because if we let dormant vulnerabilities intact, we will suffer the consequences at some point. In this case, it means better equipping medical facilities and healthcare systems, making sure they are ready for the next pandemic. But that’s also applicable for a number of other vulnerabilities out there.
What can INTERPOL learn from this crisis?
I think that INTERPOL needs to continue developing its capabilities to work better for the global community, needs to establish better and more fluid channels of communication, and needs to continue enhancing what is eventually a large network of expertise across the world, in order to remain a reference point in international security.
Sources
[1] No Author (2020). ‘The pandemic is creating fresh opportunities for organised crime’. The Economist.
https://www.economist.com/international/2020/05/16/the-pandemic-is-creating-fresh-opportunities-for-organised-crime
[2] Ibid.
[3] Ríos, Ana Maria (2020). ‘Number of confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Latin America and the Caribbean as of June 15, 2020, by country.’ Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1101643/latin-america-caribbean-coronavirus-cases/
[4] Fariza, Ignacio (2020). ‘España reafirma su apuesta por América Latina en el momento mas critico de la pandemia en la region’. El Pais.
https://elpais.com/economia/2020-05-25/espana-reafirma-su-apuesta-por-america-latina-en-el-momento-mas-critico-de-la-pandemia-en-la-region.html
More figures : https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2562261/
The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the interviewee and do not reflect those of the Security Distillery, the IMSISS consortium or its partners and affiliates.