Moon Rush: The First Step In A New Security Space

ABSTRACT

We are currently on the verge of a new age in space activities. The proliferation of lunar exploration programmes and plans to build the first permanent settlements in the 2030s could have a great impact on future international economic and political dynamics. But what are the reasons to think of the Moon as a strategic objective? What countries are trying to capitalise on it? In the following article, I will try to answer both questions.

By Juan Javier Macho Guerrero

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Half a century after the Apollo 11 mission put an end to the Space Race, the Moon is still an object of desire and a cause of rivalry. During the last decade, many space agencies have promoted new lunar exploration programmes, and the number of planned missions will increase exponentially in the next few years as a prelude to the first colonies. The flame of competition burns brightly once again, to the point that some suggest we are immersed in a new Space Race born from the geopolitical friction between the United States and China [1].

Indeed, the People's Republic of China has proven in many aspects to be a rising power willing to dispute the American status quo which emerged after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The astropolitics domain is no exception. Since the turn of the 20th century, the Chinese National Space Administration has developed effective launch vehicles (the Long March rocket family), set up their own satellite navigation network (the Beidou system) and put in orbit a space lab which will be expanded into a complete modular space station by 2022 (the Tiangong project), among other milestones [2]. Moreover, in 2019 their lunar programme Chang'e achieved for the first time in human history a soft landing on the far side of the Moon, and in 2020 successfully retrieved samples from the surface, something only accomplished before by the United States and the USSR [3].

The quick but sound progress of the Chinese programme triggered a reaction in Washington in 2019 when the Trump Administration announced the Artemis Program, a lunar exploration mission set in three stages destined to send ‘the first women and the next man’ to the Moon by 2024 in collaboration with several countries [4]. The deadline, perhaps too ambitious, will probably be delayed during Joe Biden’s Presidency since space exploration was never a priority in his agenda and he has recently signalled his interest in changing the focus of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to Earth observation tasks related to climate change [5]. This could have a great impact on the Sino-American space competition in the middle term. However, it should not be ignored that in our current multipolar world, unlike in the sixties, there are plenty of other players already committed to the Moon Rush.

Take the example of India and Japan, two countries that, despite not receiving that much public attention, have promoted ambitious lunar programmes. The Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) launched in 2007 the orbiter Kaguya to obtain scientific data from the surface. JAXA is now developing a new precision landing system and will collaborate with the United States on the Artemis Project [6]. The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) is not only involved in their own Chandrayaan programme [7], but will also cooperate with Japan in a joint mission with the objective of probing the icy plains of the south lunar pole around 2023 [8]. Other countries with spacefaring capabilities include Russia, with the reactivation of Luna 25, symbolising the continuity of the former Soviet programme after decades of inactivity [9], and South Korea, which is currently working to set up the Pathfinder lunar orbiter as a first breakthrough [10]. The European Space Agency, on its part, adopts a supportive role, offering enabling technology in missions from other countries like the American Artemis and the Russian Luna 25, but leads the scientific research on self-sustainable permanent habitats with the Moon Village concept [11].

So why is everyone so interested in going back to the Moon? It turns out that far from being just a giant pebble floating around Earth, our natural satellite is a strategic asset for several reasons.

We know that the Moon harbours abundant rare-earth elements (which are an integral component in modern electronics) and other metals crucial for the space industry such as titanium, aluminium, iron, and platinum [12]. The soil rocks can be transformed into construction materials for building long-term colonies (like concrete, basalt and fiberglass) and the ice located on the polar region, besides being a source of fresh water, could be processed into oxygen and hydrogen to produce breathable air and rocket propellant [13]. Helium-3 is also found on the surface and may play a key role as fuel for nuclear fusion reactors. Even though fusion technology is not available yet, it is the best alternative to contemporary nuclear fission, generating higher amounts of energy without any radioactive by-products [14]. Last but not least, from a scientific perspective, natural lunar conditions (low gravity, lack of atmosphere or magnetosphere, vacuum, and extreme temperatures) offer a promising scenario for carrying out cutting-edge research and experimentation.

All things considered, a permanent settlement on the Moon could become a pioneering scientific hub, a profitable resource mining colony and the core of a thriving spaceship building industry. Additionally, it provides a privileged position to monitor the activities of low orbit and control the communication lines from Earth, so whoever will successfully colonise the Moon will enjoy a strategic advantage equal to that of those maritime powers who controlled the choke points of sea trade routes during the early modern period [15].

In conclusion, there are good reasons for returning to the Moon and many players eager to do so. The wide differences in their capabilities and the complex net of cooperative interactions differentiate today's Moon Rush from last century’s Space Race, but one thing remains clear: these are just the first steps in a long journey that will shape the evolution of deep space exploration and the early colonisation of the solar system. Consequently, today’s actions will inform the economic, political and security dynamics of the next hundred years.

References

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