This article examines the persistent political instability in Bolivia and underscores the critical need to address its deep conflicts stemming from the profound division of the ruling party and the political polarisation. By analisyng key events and prominent figures, the article seeks to offer a thorough understanding of the ongoing turmoil and the governance challenges it presents.
By Sofía Vilas Muñiz
Introduction
On Wednesday 26th of June 2024, Bolivians witnessed a failed coup d’état orchestrated by the then military commander Juan José Zúñiga. The event highlighted the immense political instability that has plagued the nation for years, and underscored Bolivia’s status as the country with the most coup attempts in modern history. To understand the motives that led to this coup attempt, it is essential to trace back to the presidency of Evo Morales.
Morales’ Presidency (2006-2019)
In 2006, Evo Morales, serving as the coca growers’ union head at the time, became Bolivia’s first indigenous president. His election marked the end of the “Democracia Pactada” [1], a period characterised by a political coalition that began in 1985. During his mandate, reforms such as the hydrocarbon nationalisation had a positive impact on the country’s economic growth. Furthermore, extreme poverty and inequality decreased [2]. Likewise, Morales introduced a new constitution in 2009, which aimed to recognise the rights of indigenous people, redistribute land and resources, and redefine the Bolivian state as plurinational.
Nevertheless, despite the numerous fruitful reforms and measures undertaken, his almost 14-year presidency was controversial. His support began to wane in 2016, when Morales sought to extend his time in office beyond the two consecutive terms limit established in the 2009 Constitution. Despite this, his followers argued that his first tenure should not be counted since it occurred under the old constitution.
Already elected in 2006 and re-elected in 2009, he decided to hold a referendum to amend the constitution for indefinite re-elections. The referendum was rejected by 51.3% of the voters [3], and his political party, the Movimiento Al Socialismo (MAS) decided to appeal to the Constitutional Court. They decided to approve the appeal, arguing that the term limits violated Morales’ human rights, and thus provided him with the possibility of being re-elected.
Initial vote counts of the first round of the presidential elections held in October 2019, indicated that Morales had surpassed his rival Carlos Mesa but not the 50% threshold required to win outright. However, there was an interruption in the counting process and, when resumed, Morales’ lead grew just enough to avoid a second round. Allegations of electoral fraud were widespread, leading to unrest and violence. Following pressure from the police and the military, Morales had to resign and fled to Mexico.
The Interim Government (2019-2020)
Following Morales’ and other key leaders’ resignation, the MAS no longer held a majority in parliament, and the country plunged into chaos. The conservative Jeanine Áñez, second vice president of the Senate, became the new Senate president. Subsequently, on November 12 of 2019, Áñez assumed the role of interim president and was endorsed by the Constitutional Court, which had previously allowed Morales to run for a fourth term in office.
During this period, the Organisation of American States (OAS) initiated an investigation into the October 2019 election results. Meanwhile, the interim government criticised the MAS political party by depicting Morales as a corrupt tyrant, further fuelling political polarisation. Protests became a common practice and were repressed by the armed forces and police. In November 2019, the violent clashes in protests resulted in massacres with dozens of deaths and hundreds of injured people in Sacaba (Cochabamba) and Senkata (El Alto) [4].
The interim government was highly polemical, and elections were repeatedly postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In October 2020, elections were finally held where voters decided to return MAS to power by electing Luis Arce.
Luis Arce’s Presidency (2020-Present)
Luis Arce, who served as Morales’ Minister of Economy, is the current president of Bolivia. He assumed office in November 2020, which allowed Morales to return from exile.
Previously close to Morales, Arce assumed a different role after the 2019 polemic, trying to emerge as the figure who would stabilise Bolivia and restore democracy. This shift created a profound division within the MAS, leading to physical and verbal confrontations. Furthermore, the MAS rupture has brought numerous difficulties to Arce in matters such as the 2024 budget approval[5], which was not achieved within the constitutional 60-day timeframe, after which it automatically came into force.
Earlier this year, Morales announced to run for office in the 2025 elections. In an interview, the military commander Juan José Zúñiga, expressed the unwillingness of the armed forces to let Morales return to power. Bolivia’s Defence Minister, suggested that the commander’s public political involvement prompted Arce to take the decision to dismiss him a day before the coup attempt [6].
June 2024 Coup d’Etat
The military commander Juan José Zúñiga attempted a coup d’état in June 2024, asserting his intention to restore democracy and free political prisoners, referring to figures such as Jeanine Áñez and Luis Fernando Camacho. Áñez has been imprisoned since March 2021, when she was arrested after being accused of terrorism, sedition, and conspiracy. Similarly, Camacho, the then-governor of Santa Cruz, was accused of terrorism among other criminal charges, and arrested in December 2022. He was a leader of protests calling for Morales’ resignation and against Arce’s government. The arrest operation was considered a kidnapping by the opposition and, despite protests against his imprisonment, he remains incarcerated and continued governing until the end of his mandate in January of 2024 [7].
On June 26th of 2024, Zúñiga’s troops and tanks stormed the square in La Paz, where the presidency and congress are located. One of the tanks impacted the government’s palace door, breaking it and entering the building [8].The coup failed, ending with Zúñiga being sent to a maximum-security prison, numerous participants being arrested, and a new military commander being appointed.
It is of interest to remark that most coup d’états in Bolivia have been extremely bloody, including arrests of individuals holding power or even their assassination. Nevertheless, this was not the case at this attempt.
Whilst some expected a pact between Arce and Morales following the coup, their rivalry only aggravated. Zúñiga declared that the coup was aimed at helping Arce to gain popularity in a period of economic discontent [9]. He was supported by Morales, who declared that the president himself had ordered the coup.
Conclusion
The attempted coup d’etat serves as a reminder of Bolivia’s enduring political instability, and profound divisions within the ruling party. From Evo Morales’ transformative yet contentious presidency, to the turbulent interim government of Jeanine Áñez, the current challenges for Arce’s administration, and the polarising arrest of key political figures, Bolivia’s political landscape remains fraught with tension and conflict. The relentless quest for power continues to shape the nation’s future.
References
[1] Ceppi, Natalia. “El Rompecabezas Boliviano. Idas Y Vueltas Del Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) En El Poder. Reflexiones Sobre Un Juego de Dos Tiempos*.” Papel Político, vol. 29, 20 Apr. 2024,
revistas.javeriana.edu.co/files-articulos/PaPo/29(2024)/6812641002/index.html
[2] Quiroga, María Virginia, and María Florencia Pagliarone. “Populismo Y Liderazgo En El Ciclo Político Boliviano. Evo Morales Y Luis Arce En Perspectiva.” Cuestiones de Sociología: Revista de Estudios Sociales, no. 28, 2023, p. 3, dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=9052927.
[3] Ceppi, Natalia. “El Rompecabezas Boliviano. Idas Y Vueltas Del Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) En El Poder. Reflexiones Sobre Un Juego de Dos Tiempos*.” Papel Político, vol. 29, 20 Apr. 2024, revistas.javeriana.edu.co/files-articulos/PaPo/29(2024)/6812641002/index.html.
[4] Wolff, Jonas. “The Turbulent End of an Era in Bolivia: Contested Elections, the Ouster of Evo Morales, and the Beginning of a Transition towards an Uncertain Future.” Revista de Ciencia Política (Santiago), vol. 40, no. 2, 2020, https://doi.org/10.4067/s0718-090x2020005000105.
[5] VisualPolitik. “¿Qué Hay Detrás Del GOLPE de ESTADO En BOLIVIA? - VisualPolitik.” YouTube, 27 June 2024, www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lh8uPRC82f8.
[6] Freebairn, Tom. “Bolivia’s Controversial Coup Attempt Underscores Internal Tensions.” Defense Security Monitor, 2 July 2024, dsm.forecastinternational.com/2024/07/02/bolivias-controversial-coup-attempt-underscores-internal-tensions/.
[7]Salazar, Yolanda. “Claves de Un Año En Prisión Preventiva Del Gobernador Opositor de Bolivia Luis Camacho.” SWI, 28 Dec. 2023, www.swissinfo.ch/spa/claves-de-un-a%C3%B1o-en-prisi%C3%B3n-preventiva-del-gobernador-opositor-de-bolivia-luis-camacho/49090322.
[8]Staff, Al Jazeera. “Bolivia Foils Coup Attempt: All You Need to Know.” Al Jazeera, 27 June 2024, www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/27/bolivia-foils-military-coup-attempt-all-you-need-to-know.
[9] Freebairn, Tom. “Bolivia’s Controversial Coup Attempt Underscores Internal Tensions.” Defense Security Monitor, 2 July 2024, dsm.forecastinternational.com/2024/07/02/bolivias-controversial-coup-attempt-underscores-internal-tensions/.
