The discovery of a cobalt-rich underwater mountain in the Indian Ocean has intensified geopolitical tensions between India and China, both vying for control over the critical resource. Sri Lanka, positioned at the centre of this contest, must navigate its strategic relationships with said regional powers to maintain stability and benefit economically. This briefing explores the implications of this discovery and outlines strategies for Sri Lanka to leverage its position effectively.
By Selina Wijesooriya
Introduction
The discovery of a cobalt-rich underwater mountain in the Indian Ocean has injected a new layer of complexity into the already intricate geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific region. As the demand for cobalt—a critical element in modern technology—continues to soar, this new find has attracted the attention of major regional powers, notably India and China. The briefing explores the geopolitical implications of this discovery, the interests of the key players involved, and the crucial role of Sri Lanka in navigating these turbulent waters.
Figure 1: Geographical location of underwater mountain
Discovery and Strategic Importance
The underwater mountain rich in cobalt is located within a contested area of the Indian Ocean, where maritime boundaries are not clearly demarcated. Cobalt's strategic importance cannot be overstated; it is essential for producing batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), smartphones, and other advanced technologies. The global transition towards green energy and sustainable technologies has exponentially increased the demand for cobalt, making any new source of the metal highly valuable.
The significance of this underwater mountain goes beyond mere resource extraction. Control over such a resource-rich area could shift the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region. For India, acquiring mining rights to this underwater mountain is seen as a crucial step towards reducing its dependency on cobalt imports, thereby securing its supply chain for critical technologies. Therefore, India's interest in these deposits is driven by both economic imperatives and strategic considerations [1].
Major Stakeholders
India
India's interest in the cobalt-rich underwater mountain stems from its broader strategic objectives. As a rising global power, India is striving to enhance its technological capabilities and secure its economic future. The cobalt deposits offer India a unique opportunity to bolster its high-tech industries, particularly the burgeoning EV market. Moreover, controlling this resource would reduce India's reliance on imports, which are currently dominated by supplies from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), a region fraught with instability.
India's assertive stance in the Indian Ocean is also a response to China's expanding influence in the region. By securing mining rights, India aims to establish a strategic foothold that can counterbalance China's presence. In essence, India's deep-sea mining ambitions are part of a larger strategy to challenge China's dominance and assert its own influence over regional maritime resources [2].
China
China, the world's largest consumer of cobalt, has significant investments in cobalt mining operations in the DRC and other regions. The discovery of cobalt in the Indian Ocean represents both an opportunity and a challenge for China. On one hand, it offers a new source of a critical resource. On the other, it threatens China's control over the global cobalt supply chain if India gains access to these deposits.
China's strategic interest in the Indian Ocean is well-documented. It has established a network of port facilities and maritime infrastructure projects under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The potential shift in the regional balance of power due to India's mining activities could undermine China's strategic objectives. China’s fears of losing its dominance have spurred it to support Sri Lanka in asserting its claims over the contested waters [3].
Figure 2: Chinese research ship Shi Yan 6 berthed at a Colombo harbor, Sri Lanka, Thursday, October 26, 2023
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka's position is uniquely complicated. The underwater mountain lies within an area that Sri Lanka claims as part of its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). However, these claims are disputed by India. Sri Lanka's strategic location at the crossroads of major shipping routes in the Indian Ocean further amplifies its importance in this dispute.
Sri Lanka's involvement in this issue is crucial for several reasons. Firstly, its claims over the underwater mountain bring it into direct conflict with India, its neighbour and a significant regional power. Secondly, Sri Lanka's historical and economic ties with China add another layer of complexity. China's investments in Sri Lanka, particularly in infrastructure projects like the Hambantota Port, have given it considerable influence over Sri Lankan policy decisions [4]. It should be noted that Sri Lanka's actions in this matter will have far-reaching implications for regional stability and its own economic future [5].
Regional Tensions and the Role of Sri Lanka
India-China Rivalry
The Indo-Pacific region has long been a theatre of strategic competition between India and China. The discovery of cobalt in the Indian Ocean has heightened these tensions. India's push for deep-sea mining rights is perceived as a direct challenge to China's ambitions [6]. The escalating situation can be described as a "Cobalt War," where both nations are aggressively vying for control over the underwater mountain.
The rivalry between India and China is not just about resource extraction. It is also about asserting dominance in the Indo-Pacific region. Both nations have invested heavily in their naval capabilities, and their increasing maritime presence has raised the stakes [7]. Any move by India to secure the cobalt deposits will likely be met with a countermove by China, further intensifying the geopolitical dynamics.
Sri Lanka's Strategic Position
Sri Lanka's geographic location at the centre of the Indian Ocean makes it a pivotal player in the current geopolitical contest. The country has the potential to act as a mediator and stabilise the region. However, this role is fraught with challenges, as Sri Lanka must carefully navigate its relationships with both India and China.
Sri Lanka's strategic position offers both risks and opportunities. On one hand, it can leverage its geographic and political position to extract concessions and benefits from both India and China. On the other, it risks becoming a battleground for the competing interests of its two powerful neighbours. Sri Lanka's decision-making in this context will be critical in determining the regional balance of power.
Sri Lanka's Strategy and Benefits
To maintain peace and leverage its position, Sri Lanka needs a well-defined strategy. This includes:
Diplomatic Balancing: Engaging in balanced diplomacy to avoid being drawn into the India-China rivalry. Sri Lanka should strive to maintain friendly relations with both nations, using its strategic position to act as a neutral party which can facilitate dialogue and cooperation.
Economic Gains: Negotiating terms that allow Sri Lanka to benefit economically from the cobalt deposits. This could involve forming joint ventures or partnerships with Indian and Chinese companies, ensuring that a portion of the profits and technological know-how benefits the local economy.
Security Cooperation: Enhancing security cooperation with both India and China to ensure stability in the region. This could include participating in joint maritime exercises, sharing intelligence on maritime threats, and collaborating on initiatives to protect the marine environment.
It is emphasised that Sri Lanka's approach to this issue will shape its economic and strategic future [8]. A well-balanced strategy that prioritises national interests while fostering regional cooperation can ensure Sri Lanka reaps the benefits of the cobalt discovery without being overwhelmed by the geopolitical tussle.
Conclusion
The discovery of a cobalt-rich underwater mountain in the Indian Ocean has brought to light the intricate geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific region. The contest between India and China over this valuable resource underscores the strategic importance of the area. Sri Lanka, with its unique position and claims, has a critical role to play in maintaining regional stability and leveraging this discovery for its own benefit.
As the situation evolves, Sri Lanka must adopt a balanced and strategic approach. By engaging in diplomatic balancing, securing economic gains, and enhancing security cooperation, Sri Lanka can navigate the challenges posed by the India-China rivalry and emerge as a key player in the Indo-Pacific region. The coming years will be crucial in determining whether this small island nation can turn a potential flashpoint into an opportunity for growth and stability.
References
[1] Abeysinghe, A. (2024). India eyeing cobalt in disputed waters with Sri Lanka. [online] www.asianews.it. Available at: https://www.asianews.it/news-en/India-eyeing-cobalt-in-disputed-waters-with-Sri-Lanka-61026.html [Accessed 27 Jun. 2024].
[2] Linganna, G. (2024). Cobalt Conundrum: India’s Deep-Sea Mining Push Challenges China’s Dominance, Sparks Tensions With Sri Lanka – Analysis. [online] Eurasia Review. Available at: https://www.eurasiareview.com/21062024-cobalt-conundrum-indias-deep-sea-mining-push-challenges-chinas-dominance-sparks-tensions-with-sri-lanka-analysis/ [Accessed 27 Jun. 2024].
[3] Kuttappan, R. (2024). China fears spark Indian race for cobalt in contested ocean waters. [online] Al Jazeera. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/19/china-fears-spark-indian-race-for-cobalt-in-contested-ocean-waters [Accessed 27 Jun. 2024].
[4] ibid.
[5] The Sunday Times (2024). India eyeing cobalt-rich underwater mountain in sea area claimed by Lanka: Al Jazeera report. [online] The Sunday Times, Sri Lanka. Available at: https://www.sundaytimes.lk/240623/news/india-eyeing-cobalt-rich-underwater-mountain-in-sea-area-claimed-by-lanka-al-jazeera-report-561791.html [Accessed 27 Jun. 2024].
[6] Sharma, R. (2024). ‘Cobalt War’ Erupts In Indian Ocean; India Challenges China-Backed Sri Lanka For Mining Rights In IOR. [online] Latest Asian, Middle-East, EurAsian, Indian News. Available at: https://www.eurasiantimes.com/with-china-in-its-backyard-india-seeks-mining/ [Accessed 27 Jun. 2024].
[7] Kuttappan, R. (2024). China fears spark Indian race for cobalt in contested ocean waters. [online] Al Jazeera. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/19/china-fears-spark-indian-race-for-cobalt-in-contested-ocean-waters [Accessed 27 Jun. 2024].
[8] The Sunday Times (2024). India eyeing cobalt-rich underwater mountain in sea area claimed by Lanka: Al Jazeera report. [online] The Sunday Times, Sri Lanka. Available at: https://www.sundaytimes.lk/240623/news/india-eyeing-cobalt-rich-underwater-mountain-in-sea-area-claimed-by-lanka-al-jazeera-report-561791.html [Accessed 27 Jun. 2024].
