Ever since humankind succeeded in launching its first satellite into orbit, space has been considered the last frontier. The ideological rivalries of the Cold War led to the birth of the space age, which was aggravated by the clash between the US and the USSR. Today, the rapid economic development of emerging powers such as China, the gradual reduction in the cost of rocket launches, technological sophistication, and public-private collaboration and entrepreneurship are just some of the elements that make the commercialization and exploration of Outer Space one of the most vibrant fields of international activity in the present and future. Although this discipline is vast, this article will be an introduction to the People's Republic of China's activities in Outer Space, encompassing both civilian and military aspects (which are closely related). These aspects, and the activities of the US, Russia, or India, may be touched on in future publications.
By PABLO VILLAR BOLAÑOS
The Rapid Rise of China's Space Program
The Asian giant began its space program in the late 1950s when it started developing a ballistic missile program, though it took several decades before China put the first astronaut into orbit in 2003. Since then, Chinese progress in astronautics has been fast, having achieved, only in the 2020s so far, landing a rover on the dark side of the Moon, returning samples from the visible part of the Moon, successfully launching a rover on the Martian surface, and launching its own space station. China considers space a strategic domain in its grand New Silk Road plan, to the point that it aims to become "a space power in all respects" by 2050. [1] In the words of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, "China's space dream is to tirelessly pursue the exploration of the vast universe, develop aerospace enterprises, and build a strong aerospace country." [2] China's advances in space imply a significant extension of geopolitical frontiers, transitioning from terrestrial disputes to the vast expanse of Outer Space.
Extending Geopolitical Frontiers from Earth to Outer Space
Traditional geopolitics, developed in the early twentieth century, explores how a politically delimited area, or territory, is influenced by geographical factors around it. According to classical geopolitics, the development of space activities after the Second World War added ultra-terrestrial space to the traditional dimensions of power (earth, sea, and air). This became a realm where states attempt to increase their influence in the international arena through their actions. Applying the original concepts of the heartland and continental power of Mackinder to space, whoever controls Outer Space will control the earth, a sentiment echoed byUS President Lyndon B. Johnson, who stated that “whoever controls space would control the world [3].
Militarization, Competition, and Alliances in the New Space Era
As geopolitical interests extend into the cosmos, the inevitable intersection of militarization, competition, and alliances emerges, further complicating the landscape of space exploration. It is possible to see the dual nature of space technology, and thus the purpose behind access to space. In other words, the competition to reach orbit and the significant budgets behind such missions cannot be understood without considering the strategic goals of mastering navigation, automation, communications, or robotics. Beyond the total number of satellites in orbit (around 8,300) or the distribution by country (the United States has around 2,900 and the People's Republic of China around 500), it is more relevant to understand the purposes for which nations use these satellites [4]. Although only a third of the total are designated for military use, it would be possible, if necessary, for many of those intended for civil or commercial use to transform their function.
Another aspect to consider is that, just as the United States deems free access to space vital for its national security, other nations also regard this domain as equal to land, sea, air, or cyberspace. This is the case of China, which in its 2015 military White Paper considers Outer Space as "a commanding height in international strategic competition," and therefore must address threats to its security to serve its economic interests and maintain social development [5]. In other words, for the major terrestrial powers, space is just another battlefield. This is why anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons have become so important in recent decades. Currently, the only countries that possess such weapons capable of disabling enemy satellites are the US, China, Russia and India. China successfully tested its ASAT capability in geostationary orbit in 2013, becoming the only power with the capability to destroy satellites in that orbit [6].
China has also made much progress in developing Earth observation technology. Space is considered by the Chinese to be an essential element in the development of the frequently mentioned One Belt One Road Initiative, which aims to transform China into an economic, technological and military superpower by the year 2050 [7]. To this end, China considers Earth observation capabilities vital to monitor the development, progress, and success of the mega infrastructure projects planned around the world under this initiative. These advances position China as the only country, alongside the United States, capable of deploying orbiting observatories with high resolution. Indeed, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin claimed that "space is already an arena of great power competition"[8].
Scientifically, the original Chinese plan was to apply for participation in the International Space Station, something that both the European Space Agency and Russia´s Roscosmos were in favor of, while the United States opposed, arguing that China had little added value to offer. Indeed, this opposition must be understood in the geopolitical context on Earth, as the Americans have been denouncing the theft of technology for eminently military applications [9]. In 2011, the US Congress approved the so-called 'Wolf Amendment', legislation that prohibited NASA from using public funds to collaborate bilaterally with the Chinese government or entities associated with it without explicit authorization from Congress [10]. A current NASA Administrator, Bill Nelson, has previously claimed that the Chinese civilian space program is also, in fact, their military space program [11]. It is questionable whether this strategy is the correct one, as it could be considered a mistake in the long term, precisely because it encourages China to develop its own autonomous systems. Moreover, this is effectively leading Beijing to create its own network of alternative alliances with emerging space nations [12]. Indeed, the Chinese have built their own Space Station, where they already plan to conduct around 1,000 international experiments open to interested countries [13].
The development of independent space capabilities has led China to prioritize cutting-edge technologies, as highlighted by Wang Xiji of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Wang emphasizes the critical nature of space solar power technology as a solution to the impending global energy crisis anticipated with the depletion of fossil fuels. The acquisition of this technology is seen as not just a leap towards sustainable energy but also as a strategic advantage that could dominate future energy markets, underscoring its immense strategic importance [14]. A competition with the USA to build this type of station is to be expected since the space available in Geostationary Earth Orbit is limited, and mastering the use of solar energy will provide an advantage in energy security, economic development, and the national security of the country that owns it. It should not be overlooked that another of China's strategic goals within the framework of the vision for 2050 is to create the first global electric grid, so it is anticipated that they would use this advantage to attract countries to their sphere of influence by selling this energy [15].
The Moon as the Eighth Continent
Building on its technological ambitions, China has developed a lunar program that has succeeded in landing on the dark side of the Moon for the first time in history. They are developing a program of probes and manned exploration that will position Chinese astronauts with the capability to land on the Moon by 2030 [16]. In addition, they plan to establish an unmanned base in collaboration with Russia through the International Lunar Research Station agreement [17].
Mir Sadat, who previously served as a director on the National Security Council, has drawn a comparison between the current rivalry among leading space nations, particularly between China and the United States, for dominance in Outer Space and access to potential lunar resources, to the historical "Great Game" of the 19th and early 20th centuries. This earlier period was marked by intense competition between Great Britain and Russia for control over resources and strategic locations in Central and South Asia, highlighting the ongoing strategic and resource-driven competition in space as a modern iteration of geopolitical rivalry [18]. NASA's website highlights the lunar South Pole as a particularly intriguing location within the Solar System, noting its potential to host ice and other elemental reservoirs in its permanently shadowed craters. These resources are not only seen as invaluable for future exploration efforts but also as a means to access a historical record of water composition that traces back to the origins of our Solar System. This information could be crucial for scientific research. Additionally, the presence of mountain peaks near the pole that receive prolonged sunlight could offer a sustainable energy source for a continuous human presence on the moon, such as a permanent lunar base [19]. As a result, the Moon economy could be worth up to 10 trillion dollars by 2050 [20].
Conclusion
In conclusion, the 21st century space race, marked by geopolitical competition and technological advancement, redefines the use of Outer Space. China's ambition of becoming a space superpower brings new challenges and opportunities for cooperation and international rivalry. As we venture into this new era, the understanding and strategic focus on the Moon and beyond will be crucial in determining the balance of power and the dynamics of cooperation in the international arena. Space, the ‘eighth continent,’ is not only a strategic battlefield but also a domain of immense scientific and economic possibilities, whose potential we are just beginning to understand.
References
1. Bowe, Alexander. “China’s Pursuit of Space Power Status and Implications for the United States.” US - China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2019. https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/USCC_China’s%20Space%20Power%20G oals.pdf.
2. David, Leonard. “China’s Space Station Will Be Open to Science from All UN Nations.” Space.com, May 29, 2018. https://www.space.com/40727-china-spacestation-united-nations-experiments.html.
3. Dega, Jean-Louis. La Conquête Spatiale. Paris: Presses Universitaires DeFrance,1994.
4. Active Satellite Orbit. 2024. “Active Satellite TLE Data and Information.” Orbit.ing-Now.com. 2024.
5. Office of the State Council. “China’s Military Strategy (Full Text).” Www.gov.cn, 2015. http://english.www.gov.cn/archive/white_paper/2015/05/27/content_281475115610833.htm.
6. Gruss, Mike. “Pentagon Says 2013 Chinese Launch May Have TestedAntisatellite Technology.” SpaceNews, May 14, 2015.
7. Scobell, Andrew, Edmund J Burke, Cortez A Cooper III, Sale Lilly, Chad J R. Ohlandt, Eric Warner, and J.D Williams. “China’s Grand Strategy: Trends,Trajectories, and Long-Term Competition.” RAND Corporation, 2020.
8. Biank, Cathy. “How Space Became the next ‘Great Power’ Contest between the U.S. And China - WorldNewsEra.” World News Era, 2021. https://worldnewsera.com/news/politics/how-space-became-the-next-greatpower-contest-bet ween-the-u-s-and-china/.
9. Kulacki, Gregory. “US and China Need Contact, Not Cold War.” Nature 474, no.7352 (June 2011): 444–45. https://doi.org/10.1038/474444a.
10. Wolf, Frank. Public Law 112–10 (2011). https://www.congress.gov/112/plaws/publ10/PLAW-112publ10.htm
11. David, Leonard. “Can the US and China Cooperate in Space?” Scientific American, 2021. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/can-the-u-s-and china-cooperate-in-space/.
12. David, Leonard. “China’s Space Station Will Be Open to Science from All UN Nations.” Space.com, May 29, 2018.
13. Mallapaty, Smriti. “China’s Space Station Is Preparing to Host 1,000 Scientific Experiments.” Nature596, no. 7870 (July 23, 2021): 20–21. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-02018-3.
14. Na, Chen. “Chinese Scientists Mull Power Station in Space” english.cas.cn, 2015. https://english.cas.cn/newsroom/archive/news_archive/nu2015/201503/t2015031_145878.shtml.
15. Kwong, Ray. “China Is Winning the Solar Space Race.” Foreign Policy, 2019.https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/16/china-is-winning-the-solar-space-race/
16. Jones, Andrew. “Chinese Crewed Moon Landing Possible by 2030, Says Senior Space Figure.” SpaceNews, November 15, 2021. https://spacenews.com/chinesecrewed-moon-landing-possible-by-2030-says senior-space-figure/.
17. Clarck, Stuart. “Russia and China Team up to Build a Moon Base.” The Guardian, June 25, 2021.https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jun/25/russia-china-team- up-build-moon-base.
18. Sadat, Mir. “Space Cooperation in an Age of Great Power Competition in the Indo-Pacific.” www.youtube.com, 2019.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63B74CEbpsg.
19. National Aeronautics and Space Administration. “NASA - Lunar South Pole.” www.nasa.gov, 2010. https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/LRO/multimedia/lroimages/lroc20100927_southpole.html.
20. Siqi, Cao. “China Mulls $10 Trillion Earth-Moon Economic Zone - Global Times.” www.globaltimes.cn, November 1, 2019. https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1168698.shtml.
