The article will delve into the evolving dynamics of the Indian-Russian relationship post-Jaishankar visit to Moscow in December 2023. Pointing to India’s neutrality during the Russian-Ukraine conflict, it underscores India's prioritisation of national interests in its foreign policy approach. Lastly, the article highlights the potential challenges India faces in maintaining a delicate balance between the West, Russia, and China, shedding light on the intricacies of its geopolitical navigation.
By Ayesha Zafar
Introduction
Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, in his five-day visit to Moscow in December 2023, praised the ‘exceptional’ nature of India’s relationship with Russia by calling it “One constant in world politics”. [1] Calling Russia a "valued and time-tested partner" of India, Jaishankar stated that the ties between the two countries "are based on strategic convergence on geopolitical interests" [2]. He underscored the mutual benefits derived from the relationship and India’s aim to maintain ‘multiple options’ in its connection with Russia, Europe, and the US. Intending to foster collaboration, both sides restated their commitment to cooperation in various areas, including nuclear energy, defence and space.
In this regard, an agreement was concluded to expand the Kudankulam civilian nuclear project in Tamil Nadu with six reactors of 1000 MW capacity each [3]. Alongside this, with 65% of India's armed forces' equipment coming from Russia [4], discussion to enhance the joint production of military equipment came under focus. Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, while affirming support for India’s efforts to diversify its military and technical collaborations, pledged to uphold initiatives under the ‘Make in India’ campaign [5].
Economic Engagement and Tech Cooperation
According to an official preliminary estimate, Russia's real gross domestic product (GDP) in the year 2023 has increased by 3.6% [6]. Despite Western sanctions during the Ukraine War, Russia’s trade with fellow BRICS nations—China, Brazil and India—recorded a surge of $124.4 billion, compensating the 70% of the reduction in Russian imports by the EU, UK, US and Japan [7]. Alone, India’s bilateral trade with Russia increased from 10 billion a year to around $50 billion in 2023 [8], mainly due to its purchase of discounted Russian crude oil.
In a scenario where Russia remains relatively isolated internationally, this bilateral trade upswing is poised to escalate further. With India’s GDP projected to reach US$5-8 trillion by 2030 [9], economic ties between Russia and India are anticipated to diversify beyond traditional exports to encompass automotive and electronic components. With numerous multinational companies relocating from China, India is poised to emerge as a technology and innovation centre. This shift presents an opportunity for Moscow to leverage its partnership with India to mitigate the impacts of the Ukraine war.
Russia-Ukraine War: India’s Position
New Delhi refrained from directly condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and instead linked Moscow's actions to NATO's expansion into what Russia perceives as its sphere of influence. Therefore, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who seldom meets visiting foreign ministers, made an exception for Jaishankar. Prior to his visit, he praised Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for remaining steadfast on its values and not isolating Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Putin stated, “I cannot imagine that Modi could be intimidated or forced to take any actions, steps and decisions that are contrary to the national interests of India and the Indian people” [10].
Today, around 20% of India’s oil imports come from Russia [11]. Therefore, despite Western criticism of its purchase of discounted Russian crude oil in 2022-23, India maintained its stance, believing that good relationships with Moscow are crucial for India's national security. It further underscores India’s ambition to maintain strong historical ties with Russia and prioritise defence and economic cooperation amidst a complex geopolitical landscape.
Navigating the West and Russian-Chinese Dynamics: India's Strategic Balancing Act
Though the West recognizes India’s strategic needs, Moscow’s aggression suggests a more challenging path ahead for India. While the US and EU are unified in their engagement with India, potential risks loom if a trans-Atlantic rift on Russia widens as evident. Nonetheless, experts predict that if Narendra Modi secures a third term as a Prime Minister in June 2024, India, which has a goal to become ‘Vishwa Bandhu’– a friend to the world, will continue to deepen its relationship with the West while maintaining ties with Russia, particularly in the energy and defence sectors [12]. Jaishankar confirmed India's stance between the West and the Russian-Chinese axis by noting, “we are a democracy; we are a market economy; we are a pluralistic society; we have positions on international law and I think that should give a fair part of the answer” [13].
Nonetheless, a major challenge complicating the Indian-Russian relationship is the developing ties between China and Russia. A key concern for India is Moscow's stance on potential Sino-Indian hostilities. Historically, Moscow has maintained a neutral, sometimes India-leaning, position on Sino-Indian tensions, even offering to mediate during the 2020 border conflict. However, Russia's increasing reliance on China could jeopardise this neutrality, potentially forcing India to reconsider its relationship with Russia. Signs of this shift include Russia and China's cooperation on a ballistic missile early warning system [14] and Russia's defence industry's growing dependence on Chinese components.
Additionally, the reliability of Russia as a defence supplier is in question due to the performance of Russian weapons in Ukraine and delays in deliveries, affecting 60% of India's military platforms [15]. Lately, India has been considering French Rafale jets for its carriers and has approved the import of U.S.-made rifles due to delays in Russian Kalashnikov production. Moreover, the joint connectivity project between India and Russia, the International North-South Transit Corridor (INSTC), involving Iran and Central Asian states, remains incomplete [16]. Henceforth, India's strategic positioning between the West, China, and Russia is crucial for maintaining stability in its geopolitical landscape.
Conclusion
The current dynamics reflect India’s emergence as a major power that seeks to reconstitute its relationship with Russia on equal terms. Both India and Russia, while on different sides in the global power struggle between the US and China, are finding ways to collaborate, particularly in areas like defence, technology, and crude oil. They see this cooperation as vital for addressing common challenges and strengthening their positions. Nonetheless, while maintaining engagement with Moscow across economic and defence, considering it as a potential counterweight to China, New Delhi is adopting a more cautious approach toward its dealings with Russia. Thus, the future will unveil the evolving dynamics of their relationship and the role they play in shaping the global order.
References
[1] Pasricha, A. 2023. India, Russia Reaffirm Friendship, Discuss Growing Trade, Strategic Ties. VOA.https://www.voanews.com/a/india-russia-reaffirm-friendship-discuss-growing-trade-strategic-ties/7415611.html
[2] Ibid.
[3] Laskar, R. 2023. India, Russia aim to bolster ties in energy, military-tech. Hindustan Times. https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-russia-aim-to-bolster-ties-in-energy-militarytech-101703700902499.html
[4] Kaushik, K. 2024. India pivots away from Russian arms, but will retain strong ties. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-pivots-away-russian-arms-will-retain-strong-ties-2024-01-28/
[5] Laskar, R. 2023. India, Russia aim to bolster ties in energy, military-tech. Hindustan Times. https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-russia-aim-to-bolster-ties-in-energy-militarytech-101703700902499.html
[6] Goso, S., Takami, K., and Yamashita, A. 2024. Cracks in G20 let Russia grow trade with China and India. NIKKEI Asia. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Cracks-in-G20-let-Russia-grow-trade-with-China-and-India
[7] Ibid.
[8] Mohan, C. 2024. Russia in India’s Great Power Diplomacy. ISAS. https://www.isas.nus.edu.sg/papers/russia-in-indias-great-power-diplomacy/
[9] Siddiqui, H. 2024. Modi 3.0: India’s ties with US, Russia will grow, say top experts. Financial Express. https://www.financialexpress.com/business/defence-modi-3-0-indias-ties-with-us-russia-will-grow-say-top-experts-nbsp-3484775/
[10] Vladimir Putin on PM Modi's leadership: 'Cannot imagine he could be intimidated or forced.' 2023. MoneyControl News. https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/trends/current-affairs/vladimir-putin-on-pm-modis-leadership-cannot-imagine-he-could-be-intimidated-or-forced-11874401.html
[11] India's Russia oil imports jumped tenfold in 2022, bank says. 2023. BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65553920
[12] Siddiqui, H. 2024. Modi 3.0: India’s ties with US, Russia will grow, say top experts. Financial Express. https://www.financialexpress.com/business/defence-modi-3-0-indias-ties-with-us-russia-will-grow-say-top-experts-nbsp-3484775/
[13] Barman, S. 2022. Europe has to grow out of mindset that its problems are world’s problems: Jaishankar. Indian Express. https://indianexpress.com/article/india/europe-has-to-grow-out-of-mindset-that-its-problems-are-worlds-problems-jaishankar-7951895/
[14] Bajpaee, C. 2024. Managing a managed decline: The future of Indian-Russian relations. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2024/02/managing-a-managed-decline-the-future-of-indian-russian-relations/
[15] Ibid.
[16] Panda, J. 2024. The Limitations of India and Russia’s Transactional Relationship. USIP. https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/02/limitations-india-and-russias-transactional-relationship
