By Ayesha Zafar
The Russia-Ukraine war has taken a dangerous turn after North Korea decided to deploy troops alongside Russian forces to fight against Ukraine. On 31 October, Lloyd Austin stated ‘We now assess that North Korea has sent around 10,000 of its soldiers to train in eastern Russia’ [1]. Around 8,000 of these troops are deployed in the Kursk Oblast [2]. This deployment has raised new anxieties. Some argue that North Korean assistance to Russia will lead to North Korea’s development of more lethal missiles and nuclear capabilities in the future. Both countries’s signatures to the “Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” in June 2024 increases this concern. Crucially, the Treaty reads that ‘In case any one of the two sides is put in a state of war by an armed invasion from an individual state or several states, the other side shall provide military and other assistance with all means in its possession without delay’ [3].
The developing ties between Russia and North Korea carry significant regional implications that reach well beyond Europe. This is evident in South Korea and Japan’s May 2024 decision to impose sanctions on individuals, companies, and vessels of North Korea that were allegedly involved in supplying munitions to Russia [4]. In a similar vein, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed sanctions on three Russia-based entities for facilitating weapons transfers between Russia and North Korea, calling to hold them accountable for “unlawful” activities [5]. NATO member states in an address on November 6 also showed distress over deepening military and economic ties between Russia and North Korea. The increasingly close relationship is a security threat not only to the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific but global security at large [6]. Consequently, reaffirming their strong support for Ukraine, NATO urged the member states to do more to shift the “conflict trajectory,” stressing the need to ‘raise the cost for Putin and his enabling authoritarian friends’ [7].
Thus, North Korea’s involvement in the Ukraine War has escalated tensions and heightened the need for peaceful negotiations. One of the key actors in this diplomatic equation would be the United States. President Trump’s foreign policy approach is characterised by an emphasis on reducing the US involvement in overseas conflicts while seeking to stabilise relations with Russia. It is therefore likely that a major shift in the US approach towards the Ukraine War will occur. During the election campaign, Trump pledged to end the Ukraine war “within 24 hours” if re-elected as President [8]. During an interview with Elon Musk on X, he called out the EU to match its defence spending to that of the US saying ‘Why is the United States paying disproportionately more to defend Europe than Europe? That doesn't make sense. That's unfair, and that is an appropriate thing to address’ [10]. Hence, with Trump in office, it appears that the US position on the Ukraine War would significantly change, although his plans for ending the war are not clear.
On September 24, Trump stated that the United States is “stuck” in the Ukraine War. Blaming the Biden administration, he also described President Zelensky as "the greatest salesman on Earth," alleging that each of Zelensky's visits to the U.S. resulted in receiving "a hundred billion" dollars[11]. While the US appears to continue its military support to Ukraine, it might be reluctant, under President Trump’s administration, to continue long-term US military aid without concrete results. This, on the other hand, has generated alarm for Ukraine. Particularly, after the former adviser to President-elect Donald Trump, Bryan Lanza said that the incoming administration will focus on achieving “realistic peace” rather than enabling Ukraine to gain back territory occupied by Russia [12]: ‘if President Zelensky comes to the table and says, well we can only have peace if we have Crimea, he shows to us that he's not serious. Crimea is gone’ [13].
President Zelensky while congratulating President Trump for winning the elections reiterated his support for Trump's “peace through strength” approach in global affairs [14]. Meanwhile, reactions within Ukraine remain divided over the election of President Trump and his potential influence on peace negotiations. Some Ukrainians are hopeful that his administration might bring a fresh approach to the ongoing conflict, possibly resulting in a peace agreement. Others, expressed concerns about his statements on relations with Russia and worried that his stance could weaken international backing for Ukraine’s sovereignty. A senior Ukrainian military official told ABC News that he feared that negotiations under the Trump administration could be a “fatal mistake” resulting in Ukraine losing territories permanently [15]. Meanwhile, on-ground tensions have increased as 10,000 North Korean troops have joined Russian forces in the Kursk region [16]. Furthermore, Russia's use of Iranian Shahed-136 drones has escalated, with the daily number increasing from 4-5 drones in late 2022 to around 44 in 2024 [17]. Countering this, Ukrainian forces have managed to gain control of 28 settlements (around 7.5 miles deep into Russia, on a 25 miles stretch of the border) in the Kursk region [18].
Overall, Trump’s approach to Russia during his first term was focused primarily on personal diplomacy with Putin, including summits in Helsinki and other locations. He continued military aid to Ukraine, including the provision of Javelin anti-tank missiles—approved reluctantly after aides highlighted its business benefits—which bolstered Ukraine’s defense capabilities [19]. However, it appears likely that the Trump administration would seek to reduce the US entanglement in foreign conflicts and limit its involvement in what General Keith Kellogg, Trump’s 80-year-old former national security advisor, described as “endless wars.”[20] This has further opened the window for new debates on whether the US would commit to robust military support for Ukraine in the long run. Would it prioritise peace agreements with substantial compromise from both sides? How would the EU member states respond to the US’s future policy response?
Irrespective of all, it is evident that North Korea’s troop deployment has escalated tensions and the need for immediate peace negotiations has thus never been more urgent. However, the ultimate success of any potential peace negotiations will largely hinge on the willingness of both Russia and Ukraine to make meaningful compromises for a lasting resolution. While internal dynamics within each country play a critical role, the involvement of the US, especially under President Trump’s administration, could be a pivotal factor. His approach to U.S.-Russia relations and level of support for Ukraine’s sovereignty will significantly influence the trajectory of these efforts. The road to peace remains complex, however, with strategic international support, a resolution may yet be within reach.
Bibliography
[1] Garamone, J. 2024. “North Korean Soldiers Likely to Enter Russian War on Ukraine.” The US Department of Defense. Available at: https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/article/3953130/north-korean-soldiers-likely-to-enter-russian-war-on-ukraine/
[2] Ibid.
[3] Kim, J. and Park, Ju. 2024. “New North Korea-Russia pact calls for immediate military aid if invaded.” Reuters. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/north-korea-russia-pact-give-all-available-military-help-if-other-is-invaded-2024-06-20/
[4] “Japan, South Korea announce sanctions over Russia-North Korea arms trade.” 2024. Aljazeera. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/24/japan-south-korea-announce-sanctions-over-russia-north-korea-arms-trade
[5] “Treasury Designates Sanctions Evaders Facilitating Illicit Arms Transfers between the DPRK and Russia.” 2024. The US Department of the Treasury. Available at: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2345
[6] “North Korean troops in Europe marks turning point.” 2024. NATO. Available at: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_230278.htm
[7] Ibid.
[8] “Donald Trump's Ukraine Plan Faces Key Test.” 2024. Newsweek. Available at: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-russia-ukraine-end-war-1981944
[9] Ibid.
[10] “Musk interview on X: Trump blames US President Biden for Russia's invasion of Ukraine.” 2024. Euronews. Available at: https://www.euronews.com/2024/08/13/musk-interview-trump-blames-us-president-biden-for-russias-invasion-of-ukraine
[11] Bandouil, S. 2024. “Trump vows to 'get America out' of Ukraine war, blames Biden for conflict.” Kyiv Independent. Available at: https://kyivindependent.com/trump-vows-to-get-america-out-of-ukraine-war-blames-biden-for-conflict/
[12] Santos, S. 2024. “Trump ally says Ukraine focus must be peace, not territory.” BBC. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czxrwr078v7o
[13] Ibid.
[14] Suter, T. 2024. “Zelensky congratulates Trump, noting commitment to ‘peace through strength’ approach.” The Hill. Available at: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4976166-volodymyr-zelensky-donald-trump-2024-election-victory/
[15] Reevell, P. 2024. “In Ukraine, Trump's election met with anxiety but also hope he might end the war.” ABC News. Available at: https://abcnews.go.com/International/ukraine-trump-election-met-anxiety-hope-end-war/story?id=115805739
[16] Kabachynskyi, I. 2024. “Ukraine Fights Russia’s Expanding Axis—Now with North Korea, Iran, and Belarus.” United 24. Available at: https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/ukraine-fights-russias-expanding-axis-now-with-north-korea-iran-and-belarus-3737
[17] Ibid.
[18] Kottasova, I. 2024. “Ukraine claims control of hundreds of square miles of Russian territory as operation forces tens of thousands to flee.” CNN. Available at: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/12/europe/russia-ukraine-incursion-belgorod-intl/index.html
[19] Mackinnon, A. 2024. “Trump Resisted Sale of Javelins to Ukraine.” Foreign Policy. Available at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/15/trump-resisted-ukraine-sale-javelin-antitank-missile/.
[20] Walsh, N. 2024. “Trump’s Ukraine envoy has a plan to end the war that Putin may revel in.” CNN. Available at: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/29/europe/trump-new-ukraine-envoy-analysis-intl/index.html
