The Russian invasion of Ukraine has significantly impacted its influence in the Central Asian Republics (CARs), altering the geopolitical landscape and shifting perceptions among the region’s five key states: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Historically, Russia has been the dominant external player in the region, but the ongoing conflict has led to a reassessment of this relationship. In contrast, this situation has created opportunities for other powers, particularly China. Through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has exemplified soft power by positioning itself as a generous donor and investor. This not only enhances regional connectivity but also strengthens China's influence by promoting infrastructure development and economic integration in the CARs. The growing alignment between Russia and China in the territory is perceived as a threat, contributing to a complex security environment in Central Asia. This situation raises concerns over sovereignty, potential instability from Afghanistan, and increased military dependence.
BY Nozima Kholmatova
Introduction
The dissolution of the USSR created a geopolitical vacuum in Central Asia, resulting in a substantial increase in the interest of external powers in the region. This heightened interest can be attributed to its advantageous geopolitical position, significant natural resources, and the emerging ‘clash of interests’ among the ‘great powers’, including the United States, Russia, and China. This competition has exacerbated the existing geopolitical contest for influence in the region. Russia, as the successor of the former metropolis, has clearly articulated its desire to preserve the territory as a zone of its exclusive influence. It seeks to dominate by consolidating its presence through two organizations: the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) [1]. Chinese interests in the area can be explained by two primary factors: its aim for international dominance in opposition to the United States and the creation of its own trade routes. These dynamics have turned Central Asia into a convoluted battleground, where various powers are testing their respective models to shape the region's future geopolitical landscape [2].
Russia’s Lasting Influence in Central Asia
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought on the former’s isolation through international sanctions and negatively impacted its foreign relations with the EU and the Western world. This has led to the Kremlin bolstering its efforts at its leadership position in the region, and has renewed ‘The Great Game’ in the Central Asian Republics.
By concentrating its strategic attention on the full-scale war against Ukraine and its confrontation with the West, Russia simultaneously strives to maintain long-term influence in the Central Asian states. This influence is ensured through a multi-level, extensive network of relations with the region, encompassing political (including military-political), security, socio-economic, cultural, and humanitarian factors. The Russian Federation employs this approach consistently in both multilateral and bilateral relations, aiming to limit the expansion of interests by other non-regional actors in Central Asia and to prevent these states from pursuing foreign policies that are less aligned with Russian interests [3].
It is noteworthy that the Concept of National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation highlights that, in contemporary conditions, "threats to the national security of the Russian Federation in the international sphere are manifested through attempts by other states to counteract the strengthening of Russia as one of the centres of influence in a multipolar world, to obstruct the realization of national interests, and to weaken its position in Europe, Central Asia, and the Asia-Pacific region." This document specifically identifies Central Asia as a territory where other states are attempting to impede the fulfilment of Moscow's interests and undermine its position [4].
In the current geopolitical context, Russian leaders have been, and continue to be, particularly concerned about the security of their southern borders. An analysis of the principal threats to Russia's security, as outlined in the relevant strategic concept, reveals that many of these threats pertain to Central Asia. Notable among these concerns are the potential establishment of foreign military bases and large military contingents close to Russian borders, the emergence and escalation of conflicts near its frontiers and the external borders of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and attempts by other states to obstruct the realization of Russia's national interests and diminish its influence in the area.
China’s sphere of Influence in Central Asia
Amid Sino-American rivalry China’s interests in CA extend beyond mere infrastructure development. China's provision of aid to the region is motivated by several factors, primarily aimed at fostering a stable international environment that supports its 'peaceful rise' and sustained economic growth. This strategy can be categorized into three main objectives: reinforcing Chinese dominance, exerting political influence, and increasing the region's economic dependence on China [5]. As we know, a significant portion of China's international trade navigates through the Malacca Strait, located off the coast of Singapore, a key ally of the US. This initiative is crucial for China as it strives to establish more secure trade routes. Additionally, the Chinese BRI initiative in Central Asia seeks to cultivate a broader, interdependent market for China, augment its economic and political influence, and create the optimal conditions for the establishment of a high-tech economy [6].
While acknowledging Russia's status as a dominant power in Central Asia, China has strategically nurtured its relationships with the CARs and intensified its involvement in the area. This effort was initially legitimized through the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), however today the BRI initiative is a unique project which China utilizes to successfully engage with the region.
The BRI is currently the primary driver of the China–Central Asia relationship and is in many respects an extension of the preexisting SCO framework. Increasingly, however, it is superseding the SCO, becoming the overarching structure through which China engages with the territory. China's emphasis on spreading 'Soft Power' and regional influence, as opposed to the Western and Russian donors' demands for onerous and time-consuming reforms, has impressed Central Asia. It appreciates China's practical focus on building infrastructure and achieving quick results, as well as its consistent non-interference in internal affairs.
Conclusion
While continuing to recognize Russia’s role as a privileged power in Central Asia, China has sought to carefully cultivate relationships with Central Asian republics and deepen its engagement in the region. The competition between Russia and China in Central Asia is complex, and characterized by both rivalry and cooperation. Russia seeks to maintain its historical influence through security alliances and economic integration, while China leverages economic investments and infrastructure development to expand its presence. The interplay of economic, political, and geostrategic factors will continue to shape the future of Central Asia, making it a critical battleground for influence between these two major powers. The outcome of this competition will significantly impact the region's development and its role in the broader geopolitical landscape.
References
[1] Alexandrov O., Bordilovskaya O., Veselovsky A. et al. “The Central Asian States in the context of the competition of world actors after the beginning of Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine”, National Institute for Strategic Studies NISS, pp. 59, Kiev nisi publ., 2024.
[2] BAYARKHUU, DASHDORJIIN. “Geopolitics Of The New Central Asia.” World Affairs: The Journal of International Issues 8, no. 1 (2004): 53–76. https://www.jstor.org/stable/48504969.
[3] Ibid.
[4] Omarov, Mels., Omarov, Nur. “The Central Asian States in the Foreign Policy of Russia, the United States and the European Union”, Central Asia and the Caucasus, No. 3 (63), 2009, pp. 85-94.
[5] Laruelle, Marlene. “China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its Impact in Central Asia”. Washington, D.C.:The George Washington University, Central Asia Program, 2018.
[6] Wallace, Jon., Jie, Yu., “What is China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)?”. Chatham House 2022. Available at: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/09/what-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-bri
