The crisis in Sudan has unfolded due to the outbreak of conflict between the Rapid Support Force (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), which has resulted in mass civilian displacement and a dire need for aid throughout the country [1]. These events echo the Somalian human security crisis of 1993 resulted in the starvation of 300,000 Somalis due to regime collapse and conflict between several rival factions [2]. Despite clear differences between these two cases, the similarities of their outcomes are clear, as both conflicts have produced mass food insecurity, civilian suffering, and potential regional instability [3]. A lack of institutional stability has been a common causal factor in their human security crises [4].
BY Rebecca Rempe
The flareup of violent conflict between General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo’s RSF forces and the SAF led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has resulted in a human security crisis in Sudan [5]. This crisis has the potential to destabilise the region, as the Horn of Africa (consisting of Djibouti, Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan) is experiencing an unprecedented drought which has exacerbated already widespread food insecurity [6]. The 1993 conflict in Somalia had a very different geopolitical and internal context, however, the Somali Civil War and the current Sudanese political crises share a common outcome in that both produced human security crises [7]. The causal factor in the common outcomes between these two cases is a lack of strength and stability in government institutions [8]. Institutional stability is defined as the process by which formal rules and informal norms are embedded and mechanised in state governance [9]. A lack of institutional stability is exemplified by the breakdown of relations between the RSF and the SAF and in the power vacuum that followed the crumbling of Siad Barre’s regime [10].
Humanitarian Crisis: Sudan
The conflict between the RSF and the SAF began on April 15 2023, and was sparked by a motion to integrate the RSF into the SAF [11]. The country has experienced periods of political unrest for the past decade. South Sudan gained independence in 2011 and two coups took place in Sudan in 2019 and 2021 [12], The 2019 coup ousted Omar al-Bashir, an authoritarian ruler who founded the precursor to the RSF, the Janjaweed Militia, which committed war crimes and genocide in Darfur, a region in the south of the country.[13] Though the RSF was founded by Bashir, the group cooperated with the Sudanese Armed Forces to depose him in 2019 [14]. Two years later, the two worked together once again to overthrow the joint civilian-military government [15]. As argued by Fulton, continued political upheaval has been anticipated since the 2019 coup due to the instability of RSF-SAF governance [16].
A human security crisis is defined by Thomas and Tow as an emergency that crosses state boundaries and threatens international peace; these emergencies can take several forms but generally fall under the groupings provided by the 1994 United Nations Human Development Report (UNHDR), namely: economic, environmental, personal, community, health, political, and food security [17]. The conditions facing the civilian population throughout Sudan constitute a human security crisis, as the outbreak of violence has led to the destruction of key infrastructure in Khartoum by combatants and increased risk of famine [18]. Furthermore, mass rapes have reoccurred in Darfur, a tactic not seen in the region since the alleged 2003 genocide by the Janjaweed Militia and the subsequent 25 million civilians who were in need some form of humanitarian aid [19]. Over one million people have been displaced by the conflict due a number of factors. State control has eroded over the past three months, and health security has decreased due to severe medical system shortages and the seizure of a WHO infectious disease lab by combatants [20]. Internationally, there are fears that the conflict could exacerbate regional insecurity and that neighbouring countries could become involved in the conflict. Moreover, this could cause another refugee crisis in the European Union [21].
Humanitarian Crisis: Somalia
The 1993 human security crisis in Somalia began with the implosion of the Barre regime in 1991.[22] The regime relied on Cold War funding from the United States with the subsequent withdrawal of these funds resulting in a power vacuum in which several warring factions competed for dominance over the country [23]. The strongest warlord at the time, Mohammed Aided, banned international and UN aid flows to civilians, which resulted in a famine that killed 300,000 Somali civilians [24]. The United States led a failed initiative to provide peace and security beginning in 1992, and the country experienced a lack of governance throughout the 1990s and early 2000s despite occupation by the Ethiopian military [25].
Somalia’s human security crisis resulted in civilian displacement and refugee crises in Kenya and Yemen [26]. The Barre regime’s failure to create stable and legitimate state institutions resulted in state collapse from 1993 onwards [27]. Though there were efforts to create a national government in neighbouring Kenya, and a President was named in the mid-2000s, these efforts were hampered by Al Shabaab’s insurgency in 2009, which worsened humanitarian conditions in the country [28]. Somalia’s human security crisis has continued to the present day and has worsened with the unprecedented drought that has afflicted the Horn of Africa and left 8 million Somalis on the brink of starvation [29].
Comparative Analysis and Conclusion
These cases can be comparatively analysed using the method of agreement, in which the factors of two distinctly opposed cases are analysed to find a causal factor in their common outcomes [30]. Somalia’s military dictatorship lasted from 1969 to 1991 under Siad Barre and crumbled as a result of the end of Cold War funding, leading to conflict between multiple armed groups, state failure, and occupation by a foreign government [31]. Conversely, Sudan experienced severe political turmoil due to the 1989 coup through which Bashir gained power and South Sudan’s seceded. This sesession resulted in a loss of 75% of the country’s oil revenues, the 2019 overthrow of Bashir, and the subsequent military coup of 2021 [32]. These events point to a limited institutional capacity for power-sharing within the successive Sudanese governments; in particular, institutional power-sharing was not well established or embedded in the 2019 civilian-military government [33]. The causal factor in these cases' common outcome – human security crises – is a lack of stable state institutions [34]. The breakdown in relations between the RSF and the SAF represents a failure to construct a power-sharing governance system, while the power vacuum and state failure following the collapse of the Barre regime led to intense conflict and the denial of aid and services to civilians [35]. In both cases, a lack of stable institutions resulted in a human security crisis.[36] The geopolitical context of the Sudan crisis differs greatly from that of Somalia in 1993, as international actors such as Egypt and China have vested economic interests in Sudan, which compete with the United States’ desire to promote regional democracy. Furthermore, this conflict could potentially rekindle violence in Darfur and South Sudan, which could severely worsen the current human security crisis affecting Sudanese civilians and neighbouring countries [37].
References
[1] Mariel Ferragamo and Diana Roy. "What Is the Extent of Sudan’s Humanitarian Crisis?" Council on Foreign Relations, May 23, 2023, https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/what-extent-sudans-humanitarian-crisis.
[2] Stephano Recchia. 2020. “Pragmatism over Principle: US Intervention and Burden Shifting in Somalia, 1992-1993.” Journal of Strategic Studies 43 (3): 344. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2018.1441712 ; Jon Western. 2002. “Sources of Humanitarian Intervention: Beliefs, Information, and Advocacy in the U.S. Decisions on Somalia and Bosnia.” International Security 26 (4): 119. https://doi.org/10.1162/016228802753696799.
[3] “SOMALIA: Persistent Humanitarian Crisis.” 2011. Africa Research Bulletin: Economic, Financial and Technical Series 48 (2): 19014B–19014C. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6346.2011.03778.x ; Ferragamo and Roy, 2023. “What is the extent”; Ken Menkhaus. 2007. “The Crisis in Somalia: Tragedy in Five Acts.” African Affairs (London) 106 (424): 358. https://doi.org/10.1093/afraf/adm040.
[4] Wairagala Wakabi. 2009. “Fighting and Drought Worsen Somalia’s Humanitarian Crisis.” The Lancet (British Edition) 374 (9695): 1051. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61687-1; Mohamed Haji Ingiriis. 2016. “How Somalia Works: Mimicry and the Making of Mohamed Siad Barre’s Regime in Mogadishu.” Africa Today 63 (1): 57. https://doi.org/10.2979/africatoday.63.1.03; Ferragamo and Roy, 2023, “What is the extent”.
[5] Arwa Ibrahim and Hafsa Adil. (2023) 'Sudan live news: Clashes near presidential palace in Khartoum.' Al Jazeera, 04/19/2023, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/4/19/sudan-unrest-live-news-fighting-rages-as-ceasefire-breaks-down, Accessed: April 19, 2023
[6] “Member States: 7 Countries, One shared Destiny” Horn of Africa Initiative, https://www.hoainitiative.org/member-states/. Accessed June 11, 2023 ; United Nations. "UN and partners seek $7 billion to prevent catastrophe in the Horn of Africa" UN News, May 24, 2023. https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/05/1136977.
[7] Ingiriis, 2016, 57; Recchia, 2020, 344; Ferragamo and Roy, 2023, “What is the extent”.
[8] Ingiriis, 2016, 57; Mohamed Osman and Matt Murphy. (2023) 'Sudan conflict: Residents flee capital Khartoum as fighting continues', BBC News, 04/19/2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-65325382 Accessed: April 19, 2023
[9] Ismael Blanco, Vivien Lowndes, and Yunailis Slazar. 2022. “Understanding Institutional Dynamics in Participatory Governance: How Rules, Practices and Narratives Combine to Produce Stability or Diverge to Create Conditions for Change.” Critical Policy Studies 16 (2): 204. https://doi.org/10.1080/19460171.2021.1984265 .
[10] Beverly Ochieng. (2023) 'Sudan: Why has fighting broken out there?' BBC News, 04/17/2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-65284948 Accessed: April 19, 2023; Western, 2002, 119.
[11] Maheen Sadiq and Lucy Swan. (2023) 'Fighting in Sudan in maps, satellite imagery and video', The Guardian, 04/19/2023 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/18/fighting-in-sudan-in-maps-satellite-imagery-and-video Accessed: April 19 2023; Ochieng, 2023 “Sudan: Why has fighting”.
[12] “Omar al-Bashir: Sudan’s ousted president” BBC News, August 14, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-16010445 Accessed April 19, 2023. Ochieng, 2023, “Sudan: Why has fighting”.
[13] Adam Fulton. (2023) 'Sudan conflict: why is there fighting and what is at stake in the region?' The Guardian, 04/16/2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/16/sudan-conflict-why-is-there-fighting-and-what-is-at-stake-in-the-region Accessed April 19, 2023; “Al Bashir Case”, International Criminal Court, 2009, https://www.icc-cpi.int/darfur/albashir Accesses: April 19, 2023. Ochieng, 2023, “Sudan: Why has fighting”.
[14] Ochieng, 2023, “Sudan: Why has fighting”.
[15]Ochieng, 2023, “Sudan: Why has fighting”.
[16] Fulton, 2023, “Sudan Conflict”.
[17] Thomas, N. and Tow, W.T. (2002) ‘The utility of human security: sovereignty and humanitarian intervention’, Security Dialogue 33(2): 178-179.
[18] Jennifer Holleis and Emad Hassan. "Sudan conflict fuels humanitarian disaster." Deutsche Welle, June 10, 2023, https://www.dw.com/en/sudan-disastrous-situation-fuels-ethnic-conflict/a-65871970 Accessed: June 11, 2023; Sadiq and Swan, 2023, “Fighting in Sudan”.
[19] Holleis and Hassan, 2023, “Sudan conflict fuels”; Ferragamo and Roy, 2023, “What is the Extent”.
[20] Ferragamo and Roy, 2023, “What is the Extent”; Giorgio Cafiero, Weam Al Sharif, and Youseif Basher. "Sudan’s Armed Conflict and Humanitarian Crisis" Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 11, 2023, https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/89736; Ibrahim and Adil, 2023, “Sudan live news”.
[21] Jason Burke. (2023) 'Sudan: which powers are vying for influence in vast east African country?' The Guardian, April 18, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/18/sudan-which-powers-are-vying-for-influence-in-vast-east-african-country Accessed: April 19, 2023; Ochieng, 2023, “Sudan: Why has fighting”.
[22] Western, 2002, 199.
[23] Recchia, 2020, 344.
[24] Ibid., 344-346.
[25] Ibid., 341; Western, 2002, 112; Menkhaus, 2007, 357.
[26] Ibid, 358.
[27] Ingiriis, 2016, 57.
[28] Menkhaus, 2007, 357-362; Wakabi, 2009, 1051.
[29] Stephanie Sy and Zeba Warsi. (2023) “Somalia in need of humanitarian aid as it faces worst drought in decades" PBS, April 11, 2023, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/somalia-in-need-of-humanitarian-aid-as-it-faces-worst-drought-in-decades#:~:text=Stephanie%20Sy%3A-,Somalia%20faces%20one%20of%20the%20world's%20most%20acute%20humanitarian%20crises,people%20are%20extremely%20food%2Dinsecure. Accessed: June 11, 2023.
[30] Todd Landman. 2003. Issues and Methods in Comparative Politics: an Introduction. 2nd ed. London: Routledge. 29. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203428252.
[31] Ingiriis, 2016, 60; Recchia, 2020, 344; Wakabi, 2009, 1051; Menkenhaus, 2007, 357.
[32] Noah Bassil and Jinwei Zhang. 2021. “The Post-Bashir Era in Sudan: Tragedy or Remedy?” Australian Journal of International Affairs 75 (3): 253. https://doi.org/10.1080/10357718.2021.1882385; BBC News (2019) 'Omar al-Bashir: Sudan's ousted president' BBC News, 14/08/2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-16010445 Accessed 04/19/2023; Ochieng, 2023, “Sudan: Why has fighting”.
[33] Wakabi, 2009, 1051; Ingiriis, 2016, 57; Cafiero, Sharif and Basher, 2023, “Sudan’s Armed Conflict”; Bassil and Zhang, 2021, 253; Ochieng, 2023, “Sudan: Why has fighting”.
[34] Wakabi, 2009, 1051; Ingiriis, 2016, 57; Cafiero, Sharif and Basher, 2023, “Sudan’s Armed Conflict”.
[35] Ibid.; Recchia, 2020, 344-346; Wakabi, 2009, 1051; Ingiriis, 2016, 57.
[36]Sharif and Basher, 2023, “Sudan’s Armed Conflict”; Recchia, 2020, 344-346; Wakabi, 2009, 1051; Ingiriis, 2016, 57.
[37] Burke, 2023, “Sudan: which powers are”; Holleis and Hassan, 2023, “Sudan conflict fuels”; Ochieng, 2023, “Sudan: Why has fighting”.
